India and Pakistan: A lasting agreement or a tactical truce in the war between powers?

BeirutAfter weeks of rising tensions in Kashmir, President Donald Trump surprised everyone this Saturday with the announcement that India and Pakistan have agreed to a complete and immediate ceasefire. The gesture offers a respite from a long-running conflict, marked by multiple armed clashes and a death toll numbering in the thousands over the decades. The announcement also reveals a deeper shift, as the role of the great powers has changed and, with it, the logic of regional containment.

For decades, Washington tried to balance its relationship with both countries. It considered Pakistan a useful partner in the wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan, while seeing India as an emerging giant with economic weight and strategic potential. This formula began to break down in 2019, when A suicide attack killed dozens of Indian soldiers in KashmirIndia responded by bombing Pakistani territory, and the Trump administration unequivocally supported New Delhi. Since then, Washington has made its priority clear.

In his second term, Trump has deepened this alliance. India and the US share intelligence, conduct joint military exercises, and strengthen their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific through the Quad group, along with Japan and Australia. For the White House, India is key to the strategy to contain China, and this geopolitical priority dominates its Asia policy. In this new scenario, Pakistan has been marginalized.

The recent ceasefire does not change this logic. Washington has celebrated the truce without offering mediation or committing to facilitating dialogue. It no longer seeks to prevent a war in South Asia. Its main objective is to ensure that India does not lose influence to its regional competitor. Any action that strengthens its main ally outweighs maintaining a balanced stance.

Pakistan is getting closer to China

Faced with this new scenario, Pakistan has readjusted its strategy. Without US support, it has strengthened ties with China. Islamabad has participated for years in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, one of the pillars of the New Silk Road. In recent months, that relationship has intensified with new investments, technological agreements, and joint military exercises. Beijing, which previously maintained a certain distance, now presents itself as a priority partner on multiple fronts. Kashmir is no longer an exclusively bilateral conflict and is becoming a local expression of global competition between powers.

The announcement of the truce coincides with contradictory signals from New Delhi. Recent reports indicate that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to replicate the Israeli strategy in Gaza. His objective would be to maintain firm control over a conflict-ridden territory, justify internal actions as security measures, and send a clear message to Washington. If the United States supports Israel despite international criticism, India expects to receive similar treatment.

New alliances fill the gaps left by Trump

This pragmatic and direct vision defines Trump's international approach. He supports those aligned with Washington and avoids getting involved in disputes that do not affect his immediate interests. This logic may offer short-term results, but it leaves gaps. China advances every time the United States retreats, while Russia exploits the fissures to position itself as an alternative. And new alliances emerge without Washington's active participation.

South Asia is transforming into a field of strategic rivalries. The conflict between India and Pakistan no longer revolves solely around border disputes, but is part of a new Cold War. India and the United States are aligning themselves against China and Pakistan. What happens in Kashmir not only has a local impact, but is closely followed in Beijing, evaluated in Washington, and analyzed in Moscow.

Civilians remain the most affected. Kashmir remains under strict surveillance, rights are curtailed, and the fear of a new escalation is constant. The truce announced by Trump may offer a momentary respite, but it does not guarantee lasting stability. If the powers do not act with a long-term vision, any minor incident could reignite violence.

The ceasefire reflects the shift in these dynamics. Diplomacy is losing ground in the face of strategic interests. And peace, in this new scenario, no longer depends solely on Delhi and Islamabad. It now rests in the hands of what the major powers do, or fail to do.