Dominique Sistach: "In France, as long as you're not dead and buried, political life doesn't end."

BarcelonaDominique Sistach is a jurist and sociologist, professor at the University of Perpignan Via Domícia, and an expert on political radicalism. In a conversation with ARA, he analyzes the possible consequences. of the conviction of Marine Le Pen.

Does the conviction represent a fatal blow to Le Pen's political career?

— No. In France, as long as you're not dead and buried, political life doesn't end. Politicians in France have a great capacity for resurgence. In fact, it's part of political life to fail or to have moments when you're not chosen. I even think the French appreciate a politician who fails and returns. So, it's not over. Now, it's very unlikely to see Marine Le Pen in the next presidential elections. She still has one chance: for the Paris Court of Appeal to rule before the deadline, but there's very little chance of that happening. The charges against her are very serious. If the trial had been against an ordinary citizen, she would have received the same sentences. It's a difficult time for Marine Le Pen and also for the National Rally (RN).

However, could the party emerge stronger? We can expect it to play the victim role strongly, as Donald Trump did.

— Yes, yes, of course. It's a far-right party, and it already plays the victim role. This will further strengthen it. Perhaps it will solidify its electorate, meaning people will say, "They stole the election from us, and now we're even more on their side." In the long term, perhaps for the next election [in 2032], it will be able to come back and say, "You stole the election from me, give it back to me." And perhaps then it will have a chance of being elected. But at the same time, there may be a negative effect among potential voters who don't normally vote for the RN and who might be open to voting for them to give them a chance. This less affiliated electorate may decide not to vote for them, arguing that "they're like everyone else: there are thieves on the right and left, they're no better than the others."

Does Jordan Bardella have a chance of replacing her and achieving the same popularity in such a short period of time?

— Jordan Bardella, the party's president, is very young. He's under 30. He's not yet at the level to be able to aspire to such an important candidacy. He has a good image, but technically, he's not a high-quality politician. In France, presidents, except for Macron and Giscard d'Estaing, are generally grandfathers and grandmothers. This poses a bigger problem, because they don't have an alternative. They don't have, as in the major French parties, many politicians. They have very few nationally qualified candidates, five or six potential candidates. But the French don't know them, except for Marine Le Pen and Bardella to a certain extent. It's difficult to find a successor quickly for the party. Therefore, perhaps they use Bardella by default, because they have no one else.

Do you think that one option could be the mayor of Perpignan, Louis Aliot, even though he has also been convicted?

— He was already vice president of the National Front and vice president of National Regrouping. In short, he's the party's number three. Perhaps he might say, "The young man is too young, he has to be kicked out, and I'll take his place." But I don't think so. He has no electoral profile. He has a [southern] accent. In France, you can't be president of the Republic if you have an accent; it's impossible.

This situation means that the next elections will most likely not feature the two sides that dominated the last French elections: neither Le Pen nor Macron. Could this benefit the left-wing parties?

— Not really. We have an enormous number of possible candidates and there are many parties, but few of them have the capacity to govern and form governing coalitions. There remain the traditional right-wing parties, the Republicans and the MoDem, which have quite strong candidates. Édouard Philippe, who was Macron's prime minister, is currently the favorite candidate and the one who can most unite his right wing. Therefore, the real potential novelty is that instead of having a centrist man, Macron, and a far-right woman, Le Pen, we would have one from the right and one from the far right. In other words, the left has almost lost in every case, since it is divided in two. Mélenchon divides the French left. Perhaps I'm wrong, perhaps by then the left will find a coalition. And then we will have, potentially, either right-far right, or left-far right. The real novelty is that there will be a change of faces—although we still don't know for sure if Le Pen will be able to run—and a renewal of political life.

In any case, even though Le Pen is disqualified from running in the 2027 elections, is there a real possibility that she will run in the next one?

— Yes, of course. In France, political history is marked by this. The best example is General de Gaulle. After the liberation in 1945, he was defeated in the elections. He left, and we didn't see him for seven or eight years. When the Republic was in danger with the Algerian crisis, he returned. He was elected and became president. He was already an old man, over 70. François Mitterrand ended up becoming president when he was already over 60. There are many examples. In France, it's not a problem to be big. If I were Le Pen's advisor, I would tell her to let him run in the next elections, to nominate someone who, in fact, would be better off not being elected. And in the next elections, we would run a campaign saying, "The elections were stolen from us, give them back." And then, she would already be experienced, she would have the legitimacy to claim her office. This could work. Because, mathematically, in France, the National Rally is the leading party. It has between 28% and 35% of voting intentions and, therefore, great electoral power.

So it might be even better for her, because she will have reinforced the victim role.

— Absolutely. That's what I think. If she's prevented from running now, and if she's physically fit enough to face the next election, she'll have a real chance of winning.