Growing in uncertainty

The Spanish economy, and also the Catalan one – which grew more than average last year – continues to function. The Bank of Spain, which is usually conservative in its forecasts, has revised upwards the growth estimate for 2025, from 2.5% previously to 2.7%, after reaching 3.2% last year. All this in an environment of uncertainty in the international panorama. But last year, with a similar scenario, we already saw numerous upward revisions to growth.

It is true that the monetary institute has not made estimates of the reduction in dynamism that may be caused by the allocation of more public resources to increase defense spending, as well as the application of tariffs by the Donald Trump administration. And it is a threat that no one doubts will affect, but it remains to be seen to what extent. We are therefore moving again in a context surrounded by fog.

In fact, Trump himself, not only with the constant threat of tariffs but also with statements such as those he made last weekend in which he did not rule out the possibility of a recession, contributes to generating global concern. And, curiously, as a consequence of the measures that he himself promotes. It is within these parameters that we must move. And that is why nervousness and overreaction have prevailed in the stock markets. The reason is that money is very fearful, as the classic Charles P. Kindleberger warned in his work Manias, panics and cracks.

In any case, the Bank of Spain notes the improvement in household disposable income and wages per employee due to the strength of the labour market, which are driving private consumption; and at the same time warns of a certain rise in inflation. And all this in a context with a Trump who never stops giving us scares with his peculiar management of conflicts such as those in Ukraine or Gaza, as well as with the weakening of previous European engines, especially Germany, which are not getting off the ground.

Some elements could indicate that the Spanish economy has found a new way, at least for now, to surpass one of its major trading partners. One would be to export where the Germans used to export, and the other, to attract investments thanks to comparatively lower energy costs than those of other community partners thanks to the implementation of renewable energies. And in Catalonia, a recent study by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce found that the high added value sectors were growing more. Time will tell whether this is something structural or merely temporary.

The main figures are still positive. The old unfinished business is another matter, such as increasing productivity, the true path to progress, or achieving affordable housing for a large part of the population. The period of growth should be used to improve the score, although it is a necessary but not sufficient condition, since it would reinforce two basic elements that are currently perceived as distant: public budgets and political dialogue.