Ali Aslan: "Germany is like a Nokia phone in an Apple store"

BarcelonaEverything indicates that this Sunday's elections will be The scenario of AfD consolidation in GermanyBut where does the frustration of Germans come from, leading them to jump on this conservative wave? We spoke to Ali Aslan, an international television presenter and former adviser to the German government, who was in Barcelona last week to attend a CIDOB conference on these elections.

How has German society changed in the last decade?

— The short answer would be that it has changed in terms of political outlook and economic performance.

And the long one?

— Ten years ago, Germany was seen as a global political and economic model. But in the last ten years, its reputation has been damaged for a number of reasons: it has gone from having a large trade surplus to being the fastest growing economy in the G-7 and having consecutive recessions. The reason is that it is an analogue country in a digital world. It has been unable to adapt to the 21st century. It is like a Nokia phone in an Apple Store. It says a lot that of the 50 most valuable companies in the world, there is only one German company: SAP. It is shocking and disappointing, because 10, 20 or 30 years ago this figure would have been at least double digits.

What is the reason for this drop?

— One of the main aspects of Germany's success in recent decades was what I call the triangle of success: security was provided by the US, cheap energy by the Russians, and we had a huge trade surplus because the Chinese wanted German products. That triangle that has sustained political and economic success has disappeared: Russian gas, which has disappeared due to sanctions, has made exports to China more expensive, which in turn has learned to develop its own products and no longer needs us. And as for security, it is very uncertain whether the US will continue to guarantee German security under the umbrella of NATO. Meanwhile, the car industry, the backbone of the German economy, has shown that its electric cars cannot compete with the rest of the world. Tesla is four times the size of the German industry. This competitive disadvantage leads to rapid deindustrialization, poor infrastructure, declining real wages, layoffs and a lack of skilled workers.

What impact has this had on a political level?

— Declining purchasing power, layoffs - this has political ramifications. There is a weakening of trust in institutions and in the traditional mainstream political parties. And when public trust erodes, citizens look for alternative parties. One of them is AfD, which polls predict will be second with 20% of the vote. They are now capitalising on the fact that Immigration is perceived as a major problemBetween 2021 and now, the number of asylum applications from migrants has doubled. And many of the migrants whose applications are denied are not being deported. When some individuals commit acts of terror, citizens feel frustrated.

Germany is not doing as well as it used to, but it is still the world's third largest economy.

— However, everything we have been talking about – the fall in real wages, unemployment, inflation, the war in Ukraine – has many concrete effects on people's inability to, for example, heat their homes. The housing crisis is hurting people who cannot afford adequate rent. We have an ageing society, a low birth rate. Germany needs migrants, but above all, skilled labour. At first glance, the decline may not seem so drastic, but due to rapid deindustrialisation, the inability to digitalise industry and demographic problems, there are no short-term solutions. Whatever coalition comes into being, there are reasonable doubts that the new government will be able to fix these problems.

What is at stake for the European Union in these elections?

— Very much so. A weak Germany means a weak European Union. Germany remains the EU's most populous and prosperous nation and its political and economic engine. If Germany is weakened and too preoccupied with itself, it will not be able to lead Europe. And the EU needs leadership in that multilateral world. The US has already shown that it is not interested in ensuring Europe's well-being. We have China determined to become a world power, we have Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia... trying to assert itself on the global stage. Where is Europe in this equation? It must be strong enough to defend its interests and to be taken seriously. The question is whether Europe can rely on itself when its largest and richest country is too distracted and overwhelmed by its own shortcomings and problems. It is not far-fetched to imagine a scenario where Marine Le Pen leads France, Nigel Farage the UK, AfD Germany and Donald Trump the US.