German intelligence considered it highly likely that Covid-19 originated in a laboratory.

BarcelonaFive years after COVID-19 caused a global alarm, many unknowns remain about how it originated. The hypothesis that has been widely defended in several scientific articles points to a market in the Chinese city of Wuhan as the epicenter of the pandemic, but there are still voices that defend the theory that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the disease came from a Chinese laboratory. This week, two German newspapers reported that the country's intelligence agency prepared a report in 2020 that pointed to the laboratory hypothesis, although the government, then led by conservative Angela Merkel, never made it public.

Specifically, the German agency considered that there was an 80% to 90% probability that the coronavirus had been accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. According to information published by The Time and Sueddeutscher Zeitung, The agency had indications that the research center had conducted experiments in which viruses were modified to be more transmissible to humans for research purposes. It also had indications that several safety regulation violations had occurred at the laboratory.

China has repeatedly denied this theoryThe Chinese Foreign Ministry said last month that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had never conducted such experiments and had no involvement in the release of SARS-CoV-2. This week, following the German reports, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning stressed that "tracing the origin of COVID-19 is a scientific issue that should be determined by scientists with a scientific approach," and noted that World Health Organization (WHO) experts had determined the lab theory to be "extreme." "China firmly opposes any political manipulation on the issue of COVID-19 origin tracing," he said.

The German spy agency's report was based on an unspecified intelligence operation and public data and was commissioned by the chancellor's office. At a press conference this week, the current Prime Minister, Olaf Scholz, declined to answer a question on the matter. Although this report was never made public, it was shared with the US intelligence agency, the CIA, albeit much later, in the fall of 2024, according to German newspapers.

Theory defended by the United States

The United States – which sees China as its main geopolitical rival – They keep alive the theory that the virus originated in the Wuhan laboratory. In January, the CIA published a statement stating that this hypothesis is "more likely" than the one that claims it originated naturally, although it admitted that it had "little confidence" in its conclusions and emphasized that both scenarios remain plausible. This statement, which was published after Donald Trump took office as US president for the second time, is the first in which the CIA has so clearly supported this theory despite having no evidence. Trump, who was president when the global pandemic broke out, repeatedly referred to the COVID-19 coronavirus as the "Chinese virus" and espoused denialist positions.

Several scientific studies have pointed to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in the city of Wuhan as the origin of SARS-CoV-2. For example, the journal Science In 2022, the journal published a study conducted by 18 scientists denying that the virus came from a laboratory. In September of last year, the journal Cell published an alternative study that reinforced the hypothesis that the coronavirus originated at the market, where live animals were sold.

In 2021, a WHO investigation concluded that the lab leak theory was "extremely unlikely." But the United Nations agency continues to demand more information in China, which claims to have already provided all available data. Last year, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus admitted that without complete data, "all hypotheses are up in the air."