Europe, between Putin and Donald Trump, on the 80th anniversary of VE Day

LondonA Ukrainian honor section took part last Monday in the military parade of 1,300 soldiers that went through central London, and which opened the commemorative events in the United Kingdom of the 80th anniversary of VE Day in Europe (VE Day in World War II). On Whitehall Avenue, which connects Parliament Square with Trafalgar Square –where several British ministries are concentrated–, buildings displayed the Union Jack (the British flag) and the Ukrainian flag.

That eight decades after the defeat of the Nazi regime, with the sacrifice of millions of lives and the combined efforts of the Allies –including the Soviets, who were advancing from the east–, a small representation of eleven soldiers from Volodymyr Zelensky's army –from the contingent that stood between blue and yellow flags along the route completed by the uniformed men, must be read as the most heartbreaking indicator of the tense geopolitical situation the continent is experiencing.

This Thursday's VE Day speaks more about Europe's present at war than about a past of fighting for freedom that, for many millions of European citizens, is only history. But the environment has changed. And Europe celebrates the victory while feeling, at the same time, threatened by Vladimir Putin's Russia and abandoned by its traditional American friend, since Donald Trump's arrival at the White House. A YouGov survey, released Tuesday and conducted in five European countries (the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain), indicates that between 41% and 55% of those surveyed believe a third world war is very likely within five to ten years. Forty-five percent of Americans also believe this.

European and transatlantic unity?

As the London parade took place on Monday, in Wageningen, Netherlands, where commemorations of the victory and the liberation of the country from the last Nazi troops were held, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reflected to the host, Dick Schoof, on the current situation following the Russian invasion of Ukraine"This is the third year we've celebrated the anniversary of our victory over the Third Reich under the shadow of Russian aggression against Ukraine. This changes everything. Faced with the threats posed by Putin's Russia, we must deepen our European and transatlantic unity and we need genuine solidarity."

These words, understandable in a context where Poland has Russia at its doorstep, reflect the reality of a country that plans to introduce military training for all men and, as a NATO member, is one of the partners that invests the most in defense (last year, 4.1% of GDP). To further consolidate its ties with Western Europe, Poland will sign a treaty this Friday in Paris, at the same time that Putin is holding his own French parade in Moscow.

The meeting between Tusk and Emmanuel Macron, which will ratify an agreement resulting from long years of negotiations, aims to demonstrate in Washington that Poland not only depends on the US, but also has powerful nuclear allies in Europe. France follows an ambiguous doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons to protect "vital interests" put this deterrent force nuclear energy in the service of a joint European defense. The fact that it has been criticized, from both the right and the left, demonstrates, however, how sensitive the issue is.

For his part, at the end of March, during a visit to a Vanguard nuclear submarine and after witnessing a maneuvering exercise, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the crew: "Deep in our hearts, we knew the time would come to seize the initiative," referring to Europe's vulnerability and the vulnerability of Europe and its military.

The US umbrella can no longer be guaranteed. Starmer, like Tusk in the Netherlands just three days ago, also said: "Many people are urging us to choose between the US and Europe," he said. "Churchill didn't do it. Attlee didn't do it. It would be a big mistake, in my opinion, to choose now."

Trump's role

However, the big difference is that Donald Trump seems to have already made his choice, and that talk of deepening the "transatlantic relationship" is more an exercise of will than reason. America first, then Russia, Trump has said; at least if one takes into account the great pressure on Zelensky—and the very little on Putin—in the so-called peace talks. which, in the opinion of the experts consulted by ARA, are not even, and have not led to a thirty-day ceasefire, as announced by the White House.

Putin has limited himself to decreeing one, of only seventy-two hours (on May 8, 9 and 10), on the occasion of the Russian celebration of the victory over the Nazis, which will take place this Friday in Moscow, with the presence of a large representation of foreign leaders: among others, Xi; Lula da Silva, of Brazil, and Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia.

The general feeling in Europe is that "the United States is no longer a reliable partner," in the words of the former German ambassador to Washington, Peter Wittig. Not coincidentally, one of the many challenges of the barely new chancellor Friedrich Merz is to launch the rearmament plan, for which he managed, before being invested, end the debt brake to increase spending on defense and infrastructure. A rearmament that It is also promoted by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who has also asserted that "The West, as we knew it, no longer exists."

Eighty years later, three generations after the end of the Second World War, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. Eight decades of peace—relative, if you don't take into account the Cold War and the war in the former Yugoslavia—could be, to quote Churchill regarding VE Day, "a brief period of joy."