Misc 29/12/2015

Edward Hugh, economist who foresaw the crisis, dies

The researcher lived in the Alt Empordà and was a regular contributor to this newspaper

Xavier Grau
3 min
Edward Hugh, economista

ARA has learned that British economist Edward Hugh (Liverpool, 1948) died of cancer on Tuesday at the Josep Trueta Hospital in Girona. Hugh moved to Catalonia in the 1990s and was considered by The New York Times as the "prophet of eurozone doom", as he was one of the first to predict and warn of the economic crisis.

Edward Hugh was born in Liverpool and studied Economics at the London School of Economics. He was currently living in the village of Escaules, in Catalonia’s Alt Empordà, where he dedicated himself to research and to macroeconomics. He also wrote a blog about current events and was a contributor to this newspaper. In 2014 he wrote ¿Adiós a la crisis? (Farewell to the crisis?). In his book the British economist addressed issues such as the demographic crisis and its economic implications, as well as the possible road towards sustainable negative growth and the stagnation of the European economy. Hugh also was one of the first economists to predict that Catalonia’s finances would be intervened by Madrid.

Hugh, who turned 67 on Tuesday, was diagnosed with the disease a few months ago, and was aware that his prognosis was not good. While he enjoyed little recognition in Catalonia, he had a great influence on investors and on the principal economic media around the globe. He was noted for having predicted the Euro crisis and the real estate bubble in Spain, which earned him significant prestige and influence. He used this influence to explain Catalonia —and especially Catalonia's fiscal deficit— to the world, according to ARA’s CEO, Salvador Garcia-Ruiz.

NY Times correspondent Rafael Minder highlighted Hugh’s outgoing personality and, at the same time, his willingness to share his time. Minder recalls Hugh’s ability to see and live the crisis from the front row, but without losing perspective, as well as the importance that the Spanish crisis would have for European construction. The journalist added that, in contrast to the usual image of economists as closed and academic, Hugh "was someone who enthusiastically shared his ideas and tried to win over all types of people”.

Edward Hugh, who spoke English, Catalan, Spanish, and French, decided that he could reflect and write from the small village of Escaules in the Alt Empordà, which he called "little Tuscany", after years of study and of accumulating experiences throughout his life.

The economist, born in Liverpool to a Welsh family, never hid the fact that he had wanted to live in a monastery, and this small Empordà hamlet of 60 inhabitants came rather close to this idea of having a place to reflect, read, and write. Satellite television and the internet allowed him to remain connected to the world, while Escaules gave him the peace he needed to work.

He himself admitted in an interview with ARA that he had come to Catalonia to express his many thoughts. "I have many things to say and I will spend two or three years writing", he said just a year ago, and remarked that he had been preparing for this for 45 years and the moment had arrived "to write books with reflections that will continue to be valid for ten years or more". Edward Hugh was interested in world trends and was concerned with topics such as immigration, sustainable negative growth, and deflation. "Perhaps the time has come to seek a society with a greater quality of life and more solidarity", he said, and in this he saw a challenge and an opportunity for Catalonia.

Hugh, who claimed to be one of the top experts on the Spanish economy and assured that he had been correct with more than 80% of his predictions, supported Catalonia’s secession from Spain. "Catalonia could have a future, if it leaves", he said. This position was based not only on his economic studies, but also on his thoughts, feelings, and actions. "He was a Catalan patriot", said Salvador Garcia-Ruiz, who also underscored the work Hugh did in explaining Catalonia and its situation to the world: "He did a lot of work, some which can be seen and also of the kind you cannot see".