Covid returns to hospitals
The virus spreads at levels of the first wave and puts people aged 30 to 69 years at risk
BarcelonaThe escalation of contagions of the last 10 days in Catalonia has already impacted hospitals: in the last few hours thirty coronavirus patients have been admitted and 12 more are in intensive care units (ICU). Thus, according to data from the Department of Health, at this point there are 575 people in a covid ward and 133 in a critical area. Although the average age of those infected is very young - stagnates at 26 years - and that the rate of inoculation of vaccines is at record highs, with more than 700,000 doses put in the last week, there is still a not inconsiderable volume of people at risk of being hospitalized who have not completed their vaccination schedule or that have not had sufficient time for their immune system to strengthen.
In one week the cumulative incidence among the population aged 30 to 49 years has tripled - it has gone from 111 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 330 - while that of 50 to 69 years has doubled - from 40 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to the current 100. "There has been a strong increase in the 30 to 50 age group, which is close to the maximum recorded, and a significant increase in the 50 to 70 age group", the Biocom researchers emphasize. It is these infections that can increase hospital admissions, although the huge transmission recorded in the country, with 25,000 infections per week, does not exempt younger people from being admitted as well. It is estimated that about 2% of young people in Europe may be positive for covid.
The director of the Center for Coordination of Alerts and Health Emergencies (CAES), Fernando Simon, warned on Monday that the more covid transmission grows, the more the risk increases that those who do not develop immunity despite being vaccinated will suffer severe covid. A 10% of those vaccinated do not get protection against covid, but Simon hopes "that there are few" who end up having to go to a hospital.
The vaccines licensed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) are very effective in preventing these serious consequences. Full vaccination with Pfizer and Moderna prevents infection in 90% of cases, symptoms in 95% of cases and hospitalisation and death in 99% of cases. As for AstraZeneca, with two doses, the development of the disease is prevented in 85% of cases and admissions and deaths in 99% of cases.
Three times the number of infections
For the moment, however, the fifth wave is the most aggressive of the pandemic in terms of spreading. The rate of contagion (Rt), which calculates the speed with which the virus is transmitted, exceeds 3 and, therefore, it is estimated that a single positive person can spread the virus to at least three more people. The reality, however, is that the delta variant (originating in India) already accounts for two out of every five infections in Catalonia and is 57% more contagious, so that if before between 4 and 5 positive contacts were detected, now each infected person can result in between 9 and 10, many of whom will not be living with the infected person.
In Catalonia it has been estimated that about 3,700 infections are occuring per day, more than 25,000 per week, and this uncontrolled transmission makes it unfeasible to trace the infected. The most affected population are young people between 16 and 29 years and, if the trend continues to grow, soon one in 40 young people will be infected with coronavirus, according to Biocom. At the moment, 1,445 infections per 100,000 inhabitants are being diagnosed in this age group, six times more cases than a week ago.
Approximately 15% of the diagnostic tests that are being done are positive, which triples the maximum threshold (5%) set by the World Health Organization (WHO) to consider that the epidemic is under control. And, as always, the cases detected are a small fraction of those that actually occur. Researchers estimate that total actual infections are three times the value provided by antigen testing (ART) in primary care, so if 16,400 cases are being detected with ART this week, there are probably 33,000 more undetectable positives.
