Conclave in Rome: the maneuvers are already underway

Since it goes Pope Francis dies, betting houses have enabled a space on their websites so that, in addition to predicting who will win a football match or a horse race, everyone can gamble on which cardinal will become pope. These multinationals, always on the lookout for business opportunities, know that, a priori, this conclave is expected to be long and uncertain.

It is important to remember, on the one hand, an immutable rule that has governed papal elections since the 13th century: two-thirds of the votes are required. Thus, no faction or pressure group can impose its candidate on the whole of Catholicism. The collateral effect is obvious: a controversial papal candidate easily generates a blocking minority, because one-third of the votes is enough to prevent his election.

On the other hand, the great heterogeneity of the college of cardinals, expressly desired by Francis, could be an impediment to a quick outcome. Not only do we find prelates from 71 different countries, but, for the first time in history, Europeans (53 out of a total of 135 voters) are a minority. One obvious consequence is that very important concerns in Europe, such as sexual morality or the role of women in the Church, may not be so everywhere. Another is that, contrary to what was previously the case, the electors often do not know each other personally, speak different languages, and have diverse backgrounds. That is why the congregations prior to the conclave, in which any cardinal can speak, despite going largely unnoticed by the public, are so important.

At this point, when the cardinals close in the Sistine Chapel, what can we expect?

It seems clear that the core decidedly opposed to the reforms initiated by Francis They will have already sought to promote a candidate. But this regressive group has two factors against it. First, as cardinals of the Catholic Church, they have not hesitated to make public their opposition to the Pope, something unprecedented that their most responsible brethren will not forget. Second, given that 108 of the voters were made cardinals by Francis, they will hardly achieve the required majority.

Therefore, the ultraconservatives will seek arguments to get other cardinals on board, starting with those marginalized by Francis for having covered up sexual abuse or for a lack of financial transparency. They may also, for example, propose an African candidate, to win votes from the Global South, or promise greater firmness against governments that have persecuted Catholics (in Venezuela, Nicaragua, China, etc.), given the policy of appeasement with these states carried out by Francis (and, let's not forget, by the) a significant group of Asian or American cardinals.

The self-serving discourse of "polarization"

If these strategies don't work, the conservative group has already revealed its next move. While, upon Francis's death, much of the commentary insisted on completing the reforms, a week later the overall tone in the press, where this sector has powerful voices, has changed radically. Now there is talk of the "polarization" that Francis has caused. –despite not having changed a single comma of canon law!– and the need for a pope who guarantees the "unity" of the Church. There are even warnings of the risk of a "schism" if the elected official continues on Francis's path! Behind this threat, it's not difficult to see the desire to create a consensus around a moderate—and, most likely, elderly—pontiff who can put, at the very least, a temporary brake on the changes of recent years.

In the face of these seductive calls for unity –pontiff, etymologically, means "bridge builder" - it is also not certain that within the group of cardinals most in favor of continuing the reforms or, at least, of maintaining the centrality of social discourse in the Church that has characterized the pontificate of Francis, there is anyone capable of uniting a qualified majority. Some are too youths, because they are under 60 years old. Many, moreover, are European, and even some of the names most frequently mentioned in the newspapers are Italian. After so many centuries of Italian dominance in the conclave, will the other electors accept a return to an Italian or, at least, a European pope? This movement will have to find a good candidate, possibly non-European and elderly.

Another factor also plays a role in favor of electing a moderate, low-profile pope. For some time, perhaps since 1978, in the midst of the Cold War, when the cardinals elected a Polish archbishop, geopolitics has not been such a factor in a conclave. We seem to be heading toward a brutal, global confrontation between the United States and China, while the European Union and its values are losing weight and influence. The neoliberal tendencies and barriers to migration against which Francis had unequivocally spoken out seem to be becoming more widespread. Historically, in international situations like this, the cardinals' absolute priority has been to safeguard the Church's independence from pressure from any power or attempts to subordinate Catholic doctrine to their interests. But what would be the counterpart of this option? A dull Church, withdrawn into itself, unheard, lacking the prophetic tone and attention to the "peripheries" of Pope Francis.

In short, there are so many important variables in this conclave, and the uncertainty is so high that my advice, if you wish, would be: don't bet money on any cardinal. You have a better chance of getting it right by betting on who will win the League.