Coalition scenarios in Madrid don’t show way out for Catalan independence bid
The Spanish political scene and Catalonia’s have become entwined once again. Mariano Rajoy’s refusal to negotiate anything has driven the pro-independence bloc to unilateralism in Catalonia, but Madrid’s renewed woes following the December elections have made some hopeful while others remain wary. Artur Mas’ CDC had claimed that they would gladly help to remove the PP from office, but given last Friday’s dramatic turn of events, they are being more prudent. Francesc Homs, CDC’s leader in Madrid’s parliament, stated that they would not make any concessions to the PSOE in exchange for nothing and decried the fact that he had not been asked to join the talks. ERC’s spokesman Joan Tardà made his position crystal clear: there is nothing to discuss until Catalonia’s sovereignty is acknowledged. Meanwhile, the Catalan branches of the PSOE and Podemos (the PSC and En Comú, respectively) are taking their positions hoping to exercise some influence while Ciudadanos leader in Catalonia, Inés Arrimadas, warned that she would reject any advances towards a pluri-national model for Spain. Every scenario would make an impact:
1. the left-wing coalition
A coalition government in Madrid between the PSOE and Podemos would be unlikely to garner Ciudadanos’ support, thus forcing the new Spanish president to turn to CDC or ERC (in addition to moderate Basque nationalists and fringe post-communist left Izquierda Unida) in order to forge a stable parliamentary majority that allowed bills to be passed. Pro-independence parties in Catalonia might make the most of this circumstance to ease some of the political, judicial and financial pressure that the PP has been exerting on the Catalan government. Still, this progressive alternative would not resolve one of the main issues: finding the key to a consensus on the regional debate in Spain. The PSOE refuses flat out to call the referendum proposed by Podemos at the insistence of its Catalan chapter, En Comú Podem. The only common ground —not entirely devoid of contradictions— would be an ambitious reform of the Spanish Constitution. However, if the PP becomes the main opposition party despite having won the elections, it will revert to the hard-line stance it adopted on Catalonia’s new Statute and will use its relative majority in Madrid’s chambers to veto any proposed reforms. Paradoxically, the most ambitious path —leading to a a Catalan independence referendum— would only require a majority in Madrid’s parliament and the acquiescence of the Spanish government. Only time will tell whether —should it go ahead— the Ministry for Pluri-Nationality proposed by Podemos (Spain’s time-honoured outstanding challenge) will patch things up with Catalonia to some extent whilst gaining some extra time. This coalition agreement would up the pressure on En Comú Podem, who would struggle not to disappoint their voters.
2. the PP-PSOE and Ciudadanos coalition
This would be the most confrontational scenario. The PP would lead a strong government and, with Pedro Sánchez out of the picture, the PSOE’s regional leaders would hold the party’s reins, led by Andalusia’s president Susana Díaz, a Spanish nationalist. Ciudadanos would join such a government because it would refrain from making “territorial concessions”. This formula would mean that the PP would have to make joint decisions and agree with its partners on how to terminate the Catalan independence process, but would not ease the pressure on the Catalan government. The Catalan winner on December 20, En Comú Podem, would be irrelevant in Madrid, as would be the two pro-independence parties, CDC and ERC.
3. Fresh elections
If the left fails and the PSOE refuses to cozy up to the PP, there will be a snap election in June. To avert the risk of another stalemate, this time around the campaign would be rather different, with much at stake for Ciudadanos and En Comú Podem. The latter have failed to form their own parliamentary group in Madrid —which they had vowed to get— and an independence referendum in Catalonia —which Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias was committed to— is not in the cards of the negotiation with the PSOE, for now. The Catalan pro-independence bloc ran on two separate lists in the December elections before reaching an agreement with the CUP. Now that CDC and ERC share a coalition government —and considering CDC’s poor performance in December— there would be further discussion as to whether they ought to run together at all in June.
