Banc Sabadell customers reject the takeover bid outright
43% of the Catalan bank's customers are considering leaving if BBVA acquires it, and one in three is asking the government to prohibit the transaction.
BarcelonaThe BBVA takeover bid is a major headache for Banc Sabadell customers, to the point that 43% of the Catalan bank's customers say they would consider changing banks if the hostile takeover goes ahead. The rejection of the operation doesn't end there: three out of ten customers who have the bank chaired by Josep Oliu as their main bank are calling on the Spanish government to prohibit a takeover bid that could mean the end of Banc Sabadell.
These are some of the conclusions of the second wave of the ISPD/Netquest survey for the ARA (Argentine National Bank) on the first hostile takeover that Spanish banking has seen in four decades. The 3,423 respondents discuss the takeover bid and show, as was the case in the first edition of the study, published last September, that customers of both banks view the operation very differently. The surveys were conducted between February 26 and March 3.
One of the most significant points of the study comes with the question to respondents about what decisions they would make in relation to the products they contract with the bank. Among the options is "I would consider closing my account and changing banks," which is answered affirmatively by 10% of BBVA customers and 23% of those who are customers of BBVA and Sabadell. However, the percentage shoots up to 43% in the case of customers who have the Catalan entity as their main bank. This is exactly the percentage that was already given in the first wave of this study, which this newspaper published in September.
In this same question, the majority response comes from BBVA customers, of whom 52% say they would maintain their current products. This percentage drops to 35% among those who are customers of both banks, and to 23% among those who are only customers of Banc Sabadell.
The rejection generated by the takeover bid among Banc Sabadell customers is also evident in another key question in the study, which asks respondents (all over 18 and bank-connected) how the central government should react to the takeover bid. The majority response comes from customers who have the Catalan bank as their primary bank: up to 31% ask the central government to prohibit the transaction. This request is maintained by 24% of those who are customers of both banks and 10% of those who have BBVA as their primary bank.
There are other factors that confirm the concern of the bank's clients. Thus, client awareness of the takeover bid varies significantly between autonomous communities. Catalonia appears to be the autonomous community with the greatest awareness of the takeover bid launched by BBVA in early May of last year. This contrasts in the Basque Country, BBVA's historic home, which ranks tenth in terms of awareness of the operation.
Competition, a key factor
Up to 69% of Sabadell customers believe the takeover bid would have an impact on competition, even raising the risk of oligopoly. It's striking that BBVA customers also share this view, with 43% of them sharing it. There is also significant unanimity regarding which bank would benefit most if the takeover bid goes ahead: 70% of Sabadell customers point to BBVA, a percentage that rises to 59% among BBVA customers.
When it comes to naming the pros and cons of this operation launched by the bank chaired by Carlos Torres, the negative factors weigh more: 57% of those surveyed predict branch closures, and 56% point to the layoffs that invariably occur in the product segment. Among the positive factors, 38% believe the resulting entity would be "more solvent and stronger," 27% cite financial stability, and 26% believe product prices would improve.
Expectations await the CNMC's decision
The operation is experiencing a decisive moment in recent weeks while the National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC) finalizes its second-phase review of the transaction. Financial sources indicate that the CNMC is leaning toward approving the transaction with minor conditions, but that it will not make the methodological changes requested by Banc Sabadell. The Catalan bank maintains that the same system used to settle the merger of CaixaBank and Bankia cannot be applied, because the impact on SMEs was not as severe at the time and the issue was more focused on individual customers. The same sources indicate that the CNMC could publish its analysis in early April. The ball will then be in the central government's court, which could enter a hypothetical Phase 3 review of the Competition Commission.
