A survey that shakes up the political landscape
BarcelonaWhen a newspaper commissions a survey, its dream is that it will be full of headlines, and its nightmare is that it won't have any (it may also happen that the headlines that do come out don't please the newspaper's readers, but that's another story). The survey published this Sunday The Vanguard Not only is it full of headlines, but it's also shaking up the Catalan political landscape in spectacular fashion. It's coming in spades.
The rise of the far right, especially in the case of the Catalan Alliance, means that the only viable government formula is a tripartite PSC-Junts-ERC coalition, because even the socio-convergence coalition alone doesn't add up. The right would have a majority in Parliament for the first time since 2010, when CiU and PP combined. But it would be by just one seat and with fewer votes than the left-wing bloc (46.9% versus 48.2%). And it wouldn't be a functioning majority either. ERC would once again become the second force, as in 2012, but in this case surpassing Junts (in votes and tying for seats at 21) and not the PSC (which it surpassed in seats but not in votes).
The Catalan Alliance would be one step away from making it. overtaking in Junts, a phenomenon that has not occurred in Spain with Vox and the PP but has occurred in other neighboring countries such as France and Italy. The influence of the far right in Catalonia, at 24%, would be higher than in Spain, where no poll gives Vox more than 20%.
Gabriel Rufián is the most popular Catalan political leader because he is better regarded among the PSC electorate than Oriol Junqueras. In contrast, Carles Puigdemont is even behind Silvia Orriols. The independence movement would gain four more seats than it does now, reaching 65, three short of an absolute majority (which would still be ineffective).
The result of all this is an ungovernable Catalonia, unless there is a grand coalition of Catalan nationalists, which, moreover, would be Salvador Illa's preferred governing formula to balance the influence that ERC and Comuns currently have in his policies. Because unlike in Spain, where a PP and Vox government is perfectly possible, in Catalonia the chances of a government with Vox or AC participation are practically zero.
