Xi Jinping ignores the UN and meets with a Trump in low spirits

WashingtonXi Jinping arrives in Washington with the perception of being an equal. Or at least, with the perspective that every day he is a little closer to being one. After hosting in May, this time the Chinese leader is the guest of the American president, Donald Trump. Only four months have passed since the last time the two leaders met in Beijing, and although China is also struggling with a weakened economy, Xi has more room to maneuver: he is not beholden to his voters.

Trump has made use of all the military pomp to receive the Chinese delegation and thus disguise the low ebb his administration is experiencing. The White House has repeated the reception it organized for the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, in Alaska: red carpet and the flight of one of the B-2 bombers at the moment Xi set foot on Andrews Air Force Base. A little over a month before the legislative elections, which the Republican has turned into a referendum on his own person, the American president finds himself cornered by the war in Iran and the need not to cause further disruptions that could further increase the cost of living for Americans.

The meeting, which counter-programs the UN, is once again a reflection of where international power dynamics are shifting. It is symbolic that, despite the trip to the United States, Xi has decided to skip New York and visit Washington directly. Trump's rejection of the post-World War II system represents a window of opportunity for a new order that the Chinese leader is fueling in his own favor.

Xi wants to buy time to keep closing the gap with Washington and Trump does not need another fire at the gates of the elections. These are the cards that will mark the rest of the conversations about Taiwan, the race for AI, and tariffs. The last time they met, Xi warned Trump that poor management of tensions surrounding Taipei could be "extremely dangerous" for both powers. For months, the Pentagon has been postponing the sale of an arms package valued at 14 billion dollars to the autonomous island, which lives with the constant threat of Chinese annexationist aspirations.

Taiwan and the situation in the Pacific

Taking advantage of the fact that neither country has any interest in muddying the waters, the Chinese delegation will likely try to pressure the White House to continue delaying the sale of arms to Taiwan. To do so, as revealed by Reuters, the Chinese negotiating team would assert its interpretation of a joint declaration signed with China in 1982 regarding the sale of American weaponry to Taipei.

The Chinese outlet South China Morning published last week that Washington will try to postpone the sale of the military package until the holding of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum and the G-20, which will be held in November and December, respectively. At both summits, Trump will once again have the opportunity to meet with Xi.

China has closely followed the missile consumption by the Pentagon during these seven months of war with Iran, which have compromised critical armament reserves, such as Patriot interceptors. One of the unwritten premises among American generals is that the army must always have enough inventory and troops ready to be able to deter or respond to any type of conflict with Beijing at any moment. Currently, the US arms industry is having trouble reducing the gap between the time it takes to consume Patriot missiles and the time it takes to produce them.

In March, the US military withdrew the THAAD anti-missile system it had deployed in South Korea to move it to the Middle East. It was one of the two THAADs that the US had permanently deployed in Asia to deter North Korea and China. The other one that remains in the region is located in Guam. It goes without saying that China is fine with letting time pass while the US continues to sink into Iran while weakening its alliances in the Pacific. Meanwhile, Beijing can continue strengthening its military and technological industry.

The race for AI

The two leaders also find themselves at a time when the race for artificial intelligence has led to growing concern about the dangers it may entail. Trump has dismissed warnings from major AI companies about the need to slow down development, citing the current competition with the Chinese. "We are ahead of China in artificial intelligence," the tycoon said recently. "And, frankly, I want it to stay that way, because whoever wins in AI, wins," he concluded.

At the heart of it all is the creation of AI weapons, a concern that has been in the air for some time. In his manifesto, the founder of Palantir—another company that applies AI to warfare—defended the need for the US to reach the milestone before other countries did.

Even so, the meeting may be an opportunity for Xi and Trump to seek to create a common framework in which to agree on how to address the current situation. Everything will depend on how the two countries manage mutual distrust. On Sunday, Scott Bessent, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, concluded talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng by proposing the creation of a security mechanism regarding artificial intelligence between Washington and Beijing. The mechanism seems far from constituting a major security agreement.

The trade war

It has been more than a year since China achieved one of the most significant displays of strength against the US: Xi was the only leader who managed to make Trump back down in his trade war. When the US president announced his universal tariffs in April of last year, the Chinese leader responded by further reducing his exports of critical minerals, which are crucial for the development of microchips. The restrictions put the White House against the ropes, and finally, Trump asked for a truce.

Beyond critical minerals and rare earths –of which China is the main exporter– there are also US agricultural exports. One of the big losers of the US president's trade war is his rural base. For example, China applies a 13% tariff on US soybeans, much higher than the tax on this product coming from Brazil, a country friendly to Beijing. Even so, in the weeks leading up to Xi's trip, Beijing has increased the purchase of US soybeans and both leaders will likely close new agricultural agreements.