Why the Epstein case is achieving what seemed impossible: turning Trump supporters against Trump

BarcelonaIf Donald Trump has proven anything, it's that no scandal involving him—much less a sexual one—can diminish the support of his loyal base of followers. At least so far. But There is a case that, for the first time, is shaking the unconditional loyalty of the MAGA movement. (Make America Great Again) toward its leader. This is a case that has fueled the conspiracy theories that have fueled the movement for years: that of pedophile and child trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. Since Elon Musk dropped the bombshell that "Trump is in the Epstein papers.", the call from the Trumpist sphere – which the Democrats have joined – to make all files public has not stopped growing. The publication of some documents that were not new, and Attorney General Pam Bondi's report, which asserted that there is no evidence that Epstein kept a client list and reiterated that his death in prison in August 2019 was a suicide, have unleashed the ire of much of the MAGA sector. And all of Trump's own attempts to divert attention from the matter have been in vain.

The president's popularity has dropped to its worst levels of this term, even after his supposed military victory against Iran or having passed his macro-law Big Beautiful Bill. More than half of Americans—and a third of Republicans— They disapprove of Trump's handling of the Epstein papers case., according to YouGov. The latest poll published by Gallup gives him an approval rating of 37%, the second lowest figure after the 34% at the end of his first term (in the midst of Covid). "This issue is the one that's hurting him the most, and he's seen a drop in support among his own voters, especially among evangelicals, but also because some of his bloggers and podcasters have turned against him," explains Franklin Institute analyst José Antonio Gurpegui.

Even Jacob Chansley, known as Q-Shaman, who became famous during the storming of the Capitol (and was pardoned by Trump), attacked the president and called him a "fraud" and a "piece of shit" (Fuck this stupid piece of shit), in messages to X that were later deleted, like Chansley's own account. Also theFormer Fox host Tucker Carlson, one of the spokespeople for Trumpism who helped him get re-elected, insisted on demanding the publication of Epstein's papers and promoted the conspiracy theory on social media that the infamous financier was a Mossad agent and that he kept a list of public figures who had participated in his parties with underage girls and whom he blackmailed.

"I never had the privilege of being on Epstein's island," Trump himself insisted from Scotland last Monday, responding to insistent questions from the press. Despite the strange choice of words, Trump wanted to make it clear that he never went to the island where Epstein allegedly sex trafficked minors and where, according to Trump, "Bill Clinton did go more than twenty times." The sordid history of Epstein, who was convicted of sex trafficking and child abuse, has served to fuel conspiracy theories about Q-Anon and other pro-Trump groups, which speak of a satanic and pedophile cabal formed mostly by Democratic Party politicians.

Now, however, the Trump administration's refusal to make the "Epstein files" public has not pleased followers of these theories and a good part of the Trump base. "Every call I get from my constituents in the office is asking me about the Epstein list," said a few days ago Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a fervent defender of Trump from the radical wing of the Republicans. However, Taylor Greene joined Trump's argument to defend his innocence in the case: "If he were guilty of something with Epstein, the Democrats would have blasted him a long time ago," she said, but she insisted on asking that all the files in the case be made public "for transparency and accountability." Representatives from Missouri also admitted that the main request of their constituents these days was "that the Epstein files be released."

It could hurt the midterm elections

And meanwhile, in recent days and weeks there has been a trickle of new photographs and documents proving the close relationship that Epstein and Trump maintained for several years, from photos of Epstein at Trump's second wedding to a video of the criminal during an interrogation in 2010 where he was asked "if he was ever with him if he was with him from time to time he refused to answer invoking "the fifth, sixth and fourteenth amendments." One of the leaked documents, an alleged obscene birthday greeting from Trump to Epstein, has brought the president to demand the Wall Street JournalThis Monday, Trump asked the judge to order a "speedy deposition" of the newspaper's owner, Rupert Murdoch (also owner of the pro-Trump network Fox News), in the trial.

Likewise, Todd Blanche, the number two in the Department of Justice and Trump's former personal lawyer, met for two days last week with Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's former partner and accomplice in his crimes, sentenced to twenty years in prison. These meetings have given rise to rumors of a possible pardon from the president in exchange for some type of information that Maxwell might have: "I have the ability to do it [grant a pardon], but no one has contacted me to ask me to," Trump responded to questions from reporters. This Tuesday, Maxwell filed an appeal of her conviction in the Supreme Court. "We are appealing not only to the Supreme Court, but to the president," added the public statement from her lawyer, David Markus.

"The real test will come in next year's midterm elections, where this whole issue could come back to haunt Trump if Elon Musk makes good on his threat and founds a new political party," which could capitalize on the MAGA discontent, Gurpegui points out. The analyst also believes that if there were evidence of any crime committed by the president when he was friends with Epstein, the Democrats would have brought it to light. "What I'm wondering is if there's a government organization involved or some powerful, close person they're trying to protect with this refusal to declassify the documents," the analyst points out.