Why did Milei win? The keys to understanding his midterm victory in Argentina

Buenos AiresJavier Milei's electoral drubbing in the last legislative elections in ArgentinaLast Sunday's victory surprised everyone, including Milei himself and his cabinet. Polls had not predicted 40% of the national vote and a win in 16 of the 24 districts, which will allow La Libertad Avanza, the president's party, to gain more than 60 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and triple its representation in the Senate. This represents a paradigm shift for the second half of Milei's term, as during the first half, the legislature has been his Achilles' heel: the Peronist majority, with occasional support from other political forces, has been able to block numerous legislative initiatives, which Milei has circumvented with decrees or presidential vetoes, effectively rendering them democratic. After Sunday's victory, Milei faces the next two years in a very different light: with greater governability in the institutions and with reinforced social legitimacy.

But why do Argentinians continue to overwhelmingly support a leader who wields a chainsaw? A "madman" who shouts, insults, and despises his rivals? Why do people vote for a government program whose banner is the destruction of the state, which materializes in the drastic reduction of investment in public services essential for the majority of society? And also, why haven't Argentinians punished with their vote the corruption that has already been exposed in the Milei administration?

Apart from a global trend towards right-wing populism and authoritarianism, there are some factors to consider in the particular reality of Argentina, starting with what political scientist Juan Negri, in conversation with ARA, calls "assets" that the government has to back up its management so farFirstly, a reduction in inflation – from 250% year-on-year in December 2023 to about 30% forecast for the end of this year; secondly, a reduction in poverty – 21 points less between the first half of 2025 and the same period in 2024 – and finally, a perception of "some order" in public life: fewer street closures due to demonstrations and less insecurity.

“It’s true that economic activity isn’t doing well, consumption is at rock bottom, wages are extremely low, and people can’t make ends meet,” Negri acknowledges, “but it’s also true that the government has fulfilled its main promise, which was to lower inflation.” And keeping campaign promises is a positive value for voters, as it is for 72-year-old Joaquín: “He’s the only politician I’ve ever known who has done what he said he would do,” he tells ARA. “Is the situation complicated? Yes, I won’t deny it, we’re having a hard time. But he already said it would be difficult, and that we would pull through,” he argues. “Besides, we’ve never seen such a good relationship between our country and the United States, which is, after all, the world’s leading power,” he adds.

According to several analysts, Donald Trump's explicit support in the final stretch of the campaign Milei's endorsement provided a decisive boost to his victory: "Trump allowed him to buy time to reach the elections without major financial turbulence, and gave him an image of strength," sociologist Gabriel Vommaro told ARA. "He extended the opportunity that society was giving him, to which Milei is asking for time and patience," he asserted.

Peronism, bewildered

However, undoubtedly the most decisive factor in explaining the broad support Milei has received halfway through his term is a lack of political alternatives: Peronism, which has been the hegemonic political option in Argentina since the 1940s, is going through a serious crisis of credibility. "There is a very bad memory of Alberto Fernández's government, and the 'good old days' of the Kirchners [2003-2015] are now very distant in people's memory," says Vommaro.

Furthermore, the movement's leader, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, is under house arrest, convicted of corruption, and the appointment of a new figurehead is hampered by internal party divisions, which end up overshadowing the political platform itself. "I think they're lost and aren't grasping the extent of the crisis in the relationship between the party and society," says the expert. The idea of "not going back" is often a stronger incentive for voters than passion for Milei: Marta, 55, sums it up this way in the ARA: "Milei doesn't represent even 50% of what I hope for, but Kirchnerism is 100% of what I don't want."

Finally, in analyzing electoral behavior, attention must be paid to the disillusionment and disinterest that have marked these legislative elections, in which 34% absenteeism was recorded, "a higher percentage than that obtained by Frente Patria, the main Peronist coalition (31.7%), in a country where voting is mandatory," notes the [source/reference].

Regarding what Milei we can expect to see in the second half of his term, the expert says that "we will probably see him calmer and less angry, knowing he will have support in Congress." For now, Milei has extended an olive branch to the provincial governors, with whom he has previously maintained a tense relationship due to budget cuts in the provinces. He has set three reforms as priorities: extending the workday to a maximum of 12 hours; raising the retirement age to 70 and privatizing pensions; and reducing taxes.