Whether accepted or not, what does Trump and Netanyahu's Gaza plan entail?

BarcelonaThe plan for Gaza presented Monday night by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu –who is being sought by the International Criminal Court as a war criminal, it should be remembered– is not a peace proposal but an ultimatum. Its 20 points demand the unconditional surrender of Hamas and the other Palestinian factions, with the release of all Israeli hostages within 72 hours as the first step, verifiable disarmament, and the establishment of a foreign authority led by Trump and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who, like the 2003 credenza, are the foundation.

Israel's commitment is a ceasefire, a withdrawal of its troops from Gaza that is not specified with maps or timetables, and the entry of humanitarian aid, which is a bargaining chip even though Israel has a legal obligation not to block it. The famine it provokes, which has unleashed the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet according to all international actors on the ground, now becomes blackmail for Hamas. In case it wasn't clear, Trump made the ultimatum explicit: if Hamas doesn't comply, Israel will "finish the job." "It can be done the easy way or the hard way, but it will get done," insisted Trump, who said on Tuesday that Hamas "has three or four days" to respond to the proposal.

Palestinian human rights lawyer Noura Erakat has summed it up in one sentence: "It's Trump's Riviera plan in sheep's clothing." Now all the pressure is on Hamas, which has no choice. If it rejects, it will be seen as responsible for the continuation of the genocide. If it accepts, it will not only have to hand over its weapons, but it will also be leaving the entire population of Gaza in the hands of Trump and Blair—that is, Israel's main historical allies—and a coalition of foreign troops—also unclear from which countries, but none of them friendly to the Palestinian cause—that occupy it.

If it answers No In the plan, he will be seen as the culprit behind the continued bombing and perpetuating hunger against a civilian population exhausted after two years of indiscriminate attacks. Turkey and Qatar, supporters of the agreement, are talking with the Hamas leadership, whoever it may be. The most substantial change in Trump's plan is that officially, not only Hamas, but also the Palestinians in Gaza, are left alone: Arab countries, Türkiye and Europe They have supported the watered-down version of the Mediterranean Riviera.

A plan without Palestine

Palestinian analyst Yara Howari, of the think tank Al Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network warns ARA that, once again, no one has taken the Palestinians into account in the design of the plan that is supposed to determine their future. "The Palestinians are being denied the freedom to decide how the framework of their future is defined. And this is part of a colonial policy that seeks to dominate us indefinitely. Trump's plan is just another crude example. And the icing on the cake is the involvement of Tony Blair, a war criminal responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in the Middle East."

If Hamas does not accept the plan—the last time its negotiating delegation met to discuss the US plan for Gaza, they were bombed by Israeli planes in Qatar—Trump has made it clear that Netanyahu will continue to have the green light to make progress in Gaza, where he has made progress in the last two years. Not a hospital, not a school, not a well of water remains untouched. The blackmail of hunger is the only incentive for the Palestinian organization to accept the plan. Palestinian journalist and analyst Mariam Bargouthi warns this newspaper: "There is an absolute disregard for the lives of Palestinians, that children and adults have the right to have food and water and not be bombed. And, instead, these basic rights are presented as a quid pro quo. It is disgusting and a clear form of abuse by people who have the power and weapons of mass destruction." The plan does not specify when or how Israeli troops should withdraw from Gaza and, in addition, guarantees Israeli control of the Strip's borders without conditions, and establishes a verification mechanism for the disarmament of the disarmament. Netanyahu is playing with all the cards: "It is clear that Netanyahu expects Hamas to say No, which would empower him to continue the horrible war in Gaza, which will lead to the death of the hostages," warns Israeli journalist Yossi Verter in the pages of Haaretz. It is also unclear what will happen to the Netanyahu government's hardline allies, who advocate expelling all Palestinians from Gaza and building settlements, if the governing coalition breaks up; Israel will likely have to call elections in early 2026, months ahead of schedule. And if Trump's plan is approved, he will have escaped the international pressure that had begun to materialize when the world was considering stopping buying and selling weapons to Israel, imposing sanctions, or limiting trade relations.

The virtual Palestinian state that Western capitals have symbolically recognized in recent months would be even more ethereal, with Gaza under international control and the West Bank under a Palestinian Authority that does nothing to prevent the expansion of Israeli settlements and the economic strangulation of cities and towns. It would also allow him to escape the mistake of having ordered his army, against the judgment of the Israeli military leadership, to occupy Gaza City before October 7. There's one week left, and the tanks and destruction are advancing, but the soldiers—already showing signs of exhaustion—are far from controlling a densely populated city, reduced to rubble and plagued by insurgent activity, a quagmire for any conventional army.

Nor does anything guarantee the Palestinians that if they comply now there will be peace in Gaza. The last ceasefire, from January to March, was unilaterally broken by Israel without any consequences, and since then the blockade of humanitarian aid has continued, provoking the worst hunger crisis in the world. And this while Israeli public opinion, which lacks empathy for the Palestinians, is outraged by the abandonment of the 58 hostages, alive and dead, still held in the Strip. If they are released, Netanyahu will have a freer hand, although it's now difficult to imagine how he can do even more damage to Gaza.