What does the US-Iran agreement represent for Israel? Nothing positive
Israel finds itself in a very complicated moment, perhaps the most difficult in the history of the country, founded in 1948. At the helm we have Benjamin Netanyahu, a controversial prime minister not only because of the situation derived from the war with Iran and its uncertain consequences, but also because of the deep religious, social and political division that shakes Israel.
With a president as unpredictable as Donald Trump, it is not easy to predict the evolution of the situation, but the agreement with Tehran creates a lot of considerable uncertainty in the Middle East. As far as Israel is concerned, the uncertainties are of great magnitude, and there are no guarantees that they will be resolved in the elections scheduled for October.
Trump's agreement with Iran has not satisfied any of the four declared objectives by Netanyahu that drove the war: the fall of the Islamist regime in Tehran, the destruction of its nuclear program, the destruction of its ballistic program, and the destruction of the Shiite axis, which includes Hezbollah.
None of these four objectives have been achieved, and now Netanyahu cannot openly confront Donald Trump as he did some years ago when he confronted Barack Obama and self-invited himself to the US Congress to deliver a very aggressive speech against the then-Democratic president. It is difficult to imagine Netanyahu repeating the same role against Trump.
The agreement with Tehran provides for the opening of a 60-day negotiation period on nuclear issues, but this period could be extended indefinitely. Israeli analysts consider that 60 days is too short a period for all the issues to be addressed. Barack Obama needed a year and a half to reach a nuclear agreement with Tehran, and there is nothing to suggest that Trump will resolve it in just two months.
Israel is losing the support of a significant portion of the population of the United States, especially Democratic voters. But a portion of Republican voters also question the Jewish state. This is an unprecedented trend that Israel is aware of. Netanyahu simply cannot afford to open a frontal war with the United States or with Trump.
More violence in Gaza and the West Bank
On the other hand, polls in recent days indicate for the first time a considerable loss of support for Netanyahu among the population, and the agreement with Iran will only increase this trend. The frustration of Israelis is evident and it is possible that it will translate at the ballot box soon, that is, that voters will seek an alternative to Netanyahu.
In the final stretch of the election campaign, Netanyahu will have to look for new formulas to increase his popularity. In Israel, the one that triumphs most is violence against Palestinians, so during the election campaign that has already begun, it will be easy for violence in the West Bank and especially in the Gaza Strip, which is already underway, to increase substantially. The violence of the army and settlers takes place daily, and the international community does not react. Without a doubt, Netanyahu will desperately play this card, which usually mobilizes a considerable part of his electorate.
With the agreement with Iran, the attention of the international community turns again to Gaza and the West Bank, a situation that will not be comfortable for Netanyahu, nor - if he loses the elections - for his successor. The context could not be more complicated after a long war during which the prime minister has not achieved any of his objectives.