What are the three names most likely to become the next pope?

RomeRome and the entire Catholic world are experiencing shock at the announcement of the death of Pope Francis, who suffered a stroke when it seemed the pontiff was recovering from the respiratory illness that kept him hospitalized for more than a month. The Vatican is now beginning a process it hasn't experienced since March 12, 2013, when the conclave met for the first time. following the resignation of Benedict XVI (Joseph Ratzinger).

At 88 years old and suffering from several serious illnesses, Pope Francis's health was fragile. Numerous hospitalizations in recent years have made him a target of speculation, especially since 2021. He underwent surgery for diverticular stenosis in the colon, during which 33 centimeters of intestine were removed. On that occasion, he remained hospitalized for ten days. Months later, the pontiff confessed that the general anesthesia affected him greatly and that he was still suffering from its effects. He added: "I know there have been meetings between prelates who thought the Pope was more seriously ill than was being said. They were preparing for the conclave. Some wanted me dead."

The names that resonate the most

In any case, following the latest hospital admission, speculation also began to swirl about his successor and the machinery of the conclave—the meeting in the Sistine Chapel of up to 120 cardinals, all under the age of eighty.

Manila. The Pope approached him with the Vatican by appointing him prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, formerly known as Propaganda Fide, in 2019. With a mother of Chinese origin, analysts consider him the most likely candidate to be the next occupant of Sant Pere. After his death, the best intermediary to build definitive bridges with Catholics in Asia has charisma and shares the progressive vision of Francis' Church. The far right, it would not seem very prudent to think that an institution like the Catholic Church can abstract itself from the same current that manifests itself in Washington, Buenos Aires, and so many European capitals. -BK_SLT_LNA~ 2013 to replace fellow Italian Tarcisio Bertone, Benedict XVI's right-hand man, who was removed when he was implicated in the scandal of leaked documents in the so-called Vatileaks caseParolin is the second youngest Vatican Secretary of State in the history of the Holy See, behind Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli, who later became Pope Pius XI. His diplomatic career has taken him to Asia and the Middle East, Vietnam, and North Korea. In 2009, he was appointed nuncio to Hugo Chávez's Venezuela. However, in recent months he also seems to have borrowed the name of Fridolin Ambongo, Cardinal of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the only one mentioned to criticize some of the reforms promoted by Francis, such as the blessing of gay couples. His rejection of Bergoglio's new orientation made him one of Müller's bosses. The most prominent voices in this sector, Ambongo and Müller, had redoubled their attacks against Francis, protected by a web of propaganda media that have helped spread their messages.

Although they appear increasingly isolated within Vatican structures and a minority in a conclave, traditionalists remain very present, especially through the powerful United States Conference of Bishops, which has gained new momentum with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House.

The College of Cardinals has 138 cardinal electors, those under the age of eighty with the right to vote in a conclave to elect Francis's successor. Of these, 110 were appointed during his pontificate, representing approximately 79% of the total electors. However, it should be presumed that the chosen one will be a representative of the most progressive sector, who would take over from Francis. Furthermore, considering that Pope Francis expanded the geographical diversity of the College of Cardinals, including cardinals from 71 countries, any prediction is quite complex.

The new pope must be elected by two-thirds of the eligible voters. In principle, although traditionally only up to 120 cardinals participate, if all 138 participate in the conclave, 92 will be needed for a white smoke to form.