"We are reaching the historical peak of armed conflict since World War II."

Barcelona2024 was the year with the most active wars in the last twelve years and the year with the most displaced people in history. These are the conclusions of the Alert 2025 report! These are high-intensity wars, meaning they cause more than a thousand deaths per year. Furthermore, there are 116 tension scenarios, contexts in which armed conflict could easily break out, a figure that is the highest since 2010.

In the shadow of the wars in Russia and Ukraine and in Israel and Palestine, the majority of conflicts have been concentrated in Africa (17) and in Asia and the Pacific (10), where the wars in Myanmar, Sudan, the Western Sahel, Ethiopia, Somalia and Mali are taking place. In the Middle East, six armed conflicts have been recorded, while in Europe and America, two have been registered on each continent. While researchers note new armed conflicts in Haiti and West Papua, in Indonesia, they warn that there are other regions where tensions are on the rise: they highlight scenarios such as Taiwan, Israel-Iran-Syria, North Korea, and Venezuela-Guiana.

"We are reaching the historical peak of armed conflicts since the Second World War," Jordi Urgell, co-author of the report, told ARA. This UAB researcher explains that, while the number of active conflicts was slightly higher in 2011 and 2012, coinciding with the outbreak of the Arab Springs, the degree of virulence of the current scenario is unprecedented. "Currently, almost 60 percent of the conflicts we analyze are high-intensity, while in 2012 it was slightly over 20 percent," he emphasizes. The figure is also higher than that for 2023 and 2022, when it was 42 percent and 30 percent respectively.

And how can this high level of violence be explained? One of the contributing factors, according to Urgell, is the proliferation and sophistication of the arms industry, which is directly related to the lethality of wars. The unprecedented global arms spending of €2.7 trillion demonstrates the trend toward increasing militarization: "In 2024, Europe spent €693 billion on defense, 83% more than in 2015, and arms imports on the continent have grown by more than one," the researcher said. And, taking into account the latest commitments of NATO and the European Union, the outlook is not encouraging: "Here we have to add the European Commission's proposal to increase it [the defense budget] by 800 billion euros over the next four years," warns Urgell, who explains that strengthening the military industry encourages arms companies to sell material in countries in conflict, even though it is often not actual material.

The other element that explains the proliferation of conflict contexts is the "growing disregard for international law" detected by international organizations, which weakens multilateralism and global governance. In fact, the report shows that the number of peace agreements signed has fallen.

122 million displaced

The humanitarian consequences resulting from these conflicts are also more severe than ever. The number of forcibly displaced people exceeded 122 million in the first six months of 2024, while the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre estimates that by the end of the year this figure had risen to 83.4 million in active displacement situations. The wars that have caused the most displacement are the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Palestine, Myanmar, and Haiti.

Another element highlighted by the report is a significant increase in cases of sexual violence, which represents a 50% increase compared to the two previous periods. Furthermore, eight out of ten high-intensity conflicts took place in countries with low gender equality.

To make these statements, the researchers look at conflict mortality, but also at factors such as the destruction of infrastructure, the impact on the landscape and human security, and sexual violence. They also assess the nature of the violence and the degree of systematization, all by exhaustively monitoring data from the United Nations, NGOs, and research centers.

Among the deadliest conflicts are wars such as those in Sudan, Somalia, the Western Sahel, and Ethiopia, which often go unnoticed. In this regard, Urgell asserts that "the degree of visibility and media and political attention not only has to do with the lethality of the conflict" and gives as an example that in 2022, while Europe was gripped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the deadliest conflict was the Tiger War in Ethiopia. "Who was talking about the Tiger or knew how to place it on a map," Urgell questions, "I wonder if it's just the geographical distance or if it's something else."

Israel and Palestine

The conflict between Israel and Palestine has been going on for a long time, but the latest escalation has come with the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the immediate start of the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. According to the authorities in the Strip, 59,000 Palestinians have so far died as a result of Israeli attacks, in addition to dozens of people buried under the rubble who could not be rescued. According to the UN, as of December 31, 2024, a total of 393 Israeli soldiers had died due to hostilities in the Strip and due to hunger as a consequence of the humanitarian blockadeThe impacts of the Israeli military campaign on Gaza have worsened in 2024 with accusations of genocide against Israel.

Russia and Ukraine

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. and has since carried out military advances at a great cost in its own victims and material losses, according to the report of the Peace School. The war front remains active with constant bombings and destruction of infrastructureAt this point, the exact number of victims is still unknown due to the difficulty of obtaining information from both sides, but it is estimated that in 2024 this number increased by 30% compared to 2023, reaching 11,154.

Myanmar

Myanmar has been dragged through decades of civil war Since independence in 1948, the conflict has raged, particularly between the central government and various ethnic minorities. The 2021 coup d'état, which overthrew the elected civilian government, sparked a new wave of armed resistance against the military junta, which rules with brutality. During 2024, armed clashes have intensified, and opposition militias have achieved significant victories on the front lines. In fact, it is estimated that the government only controls de facto 22% of the territory. According to ACLED data, nearly 20,000 people died last year due to violence associated with the conflict.

Sudan

Sudan's war, one of the most catastrophic and forgotten according to the report, erupted after the fragile transition to democracy that followed a popular uprising in 2019 failed. A military coup took place in 2021, and tensions escalated until the United States rushed to take control of the country in April 2023. It is currently one of the most devastated areas in the world, with more than 15,000 deaths, 8 million displaced, and the absence of a functioning state. Cities have been razed, hunger is widespread, and the conflict is intensifying, with no leadership capable of negotiating a solution.

Sahel

Violence in the Sahel primarily affects Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, but also parts of Benin, Algeria, and Chad. The destabilization began with the fall of Moammar Gaddafi in Libya, triggering a butterfly effect in the region. The power vacuum and proliferation of weapons left by the war in Libya provided a favorable environment for the growth of jihadism, fueled also by a context of poverty and marginalization of local communities. The civilian population suffers constant attacks and mass displacement, including by government actors who have reacted with indiscriminate violence.

Ethiopia (Amhara)

Following the war in Tigris, a new conflict erupted in April 2023 in Ethiopia's Amhara region, where the local community felt excluded from the peace agreement signed between the federal government and the Tigris People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The perception of betrayal and the proposed dismantling of the regional special forces led many Amhara to join the Fano militias. The government perceived this move as a threat and responded with a high-intensity offensive, marked by serious abuses against civilians. In 2024, at least 6,383 deaths were recorded, well above the 1,730 the previous year.

Haiti

The power vacuum following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 accentuated the institutional crisis and gave rise to the proliferation of criminal gangs – often at odds with each other – that They have taken control of entire neighborhoods of the capital, Port-au-Prince, and key infrastructure.The violence is so widespread that this is the first year the Escola de Pau report formally classifies it as an armed conflict. The population is trapped between gang violence and collapsed basic services: hundreds of thousands are displaced, and nearly half of Haitians (4.7 million) are suffering from acute hunger.

Somalia

The fall of Siad Barre's dictatorship, overthrown in 1991, left a power vacuum that sparked a civil war. A failed US intervention left Somalia without governance and dependent on international aid. Amid tensions between rival clans, the Islamist militia Al Shabaab managed to control much of the territory and, aiming to impose a very strict interpretation of Islamic law, perpetuates a reign of terror with public executions and harsh punishments. Although a slight decrease in fatalities was recorded in 2024, with 5,396 deaths and 2,712 violent incidents, the conflict remains one of the most intense and devastating on the African continent.

Israel – Hezbollah (Lebanon)

Although Hezbollah emerged as a Shiite armed force with Iranian support after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the conflict – which had been in a fragile lull since 2006 – has been reactivated by the escalation in Gaza. The confrontation escalated in September 2024 with the intensification of the Israeli air campaign and reached its peak in October, when Israel began a ground operation in southern LebanonThe result was more than 4,000 Lebanese dead and a million displaced. During the same period, 72 Israelis died, 30 of them as a result of clashes with Hezbollah.

Mali

In 2012, a Tuareg uprising in northern Mali paved the way for jihadist groups like Ansar Dine, who took advantage of the chaos to impose Sharia law, clashing with both the state and the local population. The 2015 peace agreement excluded the jihadists, which led to continued and even expanded violence, especially with the arrival of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner. Thus, the state progressively lost control of the territory, while clashes between the Malian army, Tuareg rebels, and Russian mercenaries became chronic. In January 2024, the military junta terminated the peace agreement, and 4,000 deaths were recorded that year. The humanitarian crisis has left more than 300,000 refugees and displaced people.