"We are reaching the highest peak of armed conflict since World War II."

Barcelona2024 was the year with the most active wars in the last twelve years and the year with the most displaced people in history. These are the conclusions of the Alert 2025 report! These are high-intensity wars, meaning they cause more than a thousand deaths per year. Furthermore, there are 116 tension scenarios, contexts in which armed conflict could easily break out, a figure that is the highest since 2010.

In the shadow of the wars in Russia and Ukraine and in Israel and Palestine, the majority of conflicts have been concentrated in Africa (17) and in Asia and the Pacific (10), where the wars in Myanmar, Sudan, the Western Sahel, Ethiopia, Somalia and Mali are taking place. In the Middle East, six armed conflicts have been recorded, while in Europe and America, two have been registered on each continent. While researchers note new armed conflicts in Haiti and West Papua, in Indonesia, they warn that there are other regions where tensions are on the rise: they highlight scenarios such as Taiwan, Israel-Iran-Syria, North Korea, and Venezuela-Guiana.

"We are reaching the historical peak of armed conflicts since the Second World War," Jordi Urgell, co-author of the report, told ARA. This UAB researcher explains that, while the number of active conflicts was slightly higher in 2011 and 2012, coinciding with the outbreak of the Arab Springs, the degree of virulence of the current scenario is unprecedented. "Currently, almost 60 percent of the conflicts we analyze are high-intensity, while in 2012 it was slightly over 20 percent," he emphasizes. The figure is also higher than that for 2023 and 2022, when it was 42 percent and 30 percent respectively.

And how can this high level of violence be explained? One of the contributing factors, according to Urgell, is the proliferation and sophistication of the arms industry, which is directly related to the lethality of wars. The unprecedented global arms spending of €2.7 trillion demonstrates the trend toward increasing militarization: "In 2024, Europe spent €693 billion on defense, 83% more than in 2015, and arms imports on the continent have grown by more than one," the researcher said. And, taking into account the latest commitments from NATO and the European Union, the outlook is not encouraging: "Here we must add the European Commission's proposal to increase [the defense budget] by €800 billion over the next four years," warns Urgell, who explains that boosting the military industry encourages companies to engage in high-profile deals.

The other element that explains the proliferation of conflict contexts is the "growing disregard for international law" detected by international organizations, which weakens multilateralism and global governance. In fact, the report shows that the number of peace agreements signed has fallen.

122 million displaced

The humanitarian consequences resulting from these conflicts are also more severe than ever. The number of forcibly displaced people exceeded 122 million in the first six months of 2024, while the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre estimates that by the end of the year this figure had risen to 83.4 million in active displacement situations. The wars that have caused the most displacement are the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Palestine, Myanmar, and Haiti.

Another element highlighted by the report is a significant increase in cases of sexual violence, which represents a 50% increase compared to the two previous periods. Furthermore, eight out of ten high-intensity conflicts took place in countries with low gender equality.

To make these statements, the researchers look at conflict mortality, but also at factors such as the destruction of infrastructure, the impact on the landscape and human security, and sexual violence. They also assess the nature of the violence and the degree of systematization, all by exhaustively monitoring data from the United Nations, NGOs, and research centers.

Among the deadliest conflicts are wars such as those in Sudan, Somalia, the Western Sahel, and Ethiopia, which often go unnoticed. In this regard, Urgell asserts that "the degree of visibility and media and political attention not only has to do with the lethality of the conflict" and gives as an example that in 2022, while Europe was gripped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the deadliest conflict was the Tiger War in Ethiopia. "Who was talking about the Tiger or knew how to place it on a map," Urgell questions, "I wonder if it's just the geographical distance or if it's something else."

Israel and Palestine

The conflict between Israel and Palestine has been going on for a long time, but the latest escalation has come with the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the immediate start of the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. According to authorities in the Gaza Strip, 59,000 Palestinians have so far died as a result of Israeli attacks, in addition to dozens more buried under the rubble who could not be rescued. According to the UN, as of December 31, 2024, a total of 393 Israeli soldiers had been killed in the hostilities in the Strip. The impacts of the Israeli military campaign in Gaza have worsened during 2024 with accusations of genocide against Israel.

Russia and Ukraine

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and has since made military advances at a high cost in casualties and material losses, according to the Peace School report. The war front remains active with constant bombing and the destruction of infrastructure. At this point, the exact number of casualties is still unknown due to the difficulty of obtaining information from both sides, but it is estimated that in 2024 this number increased by 30% compared to 2023, reaching 11,154.

Myanmar

Myanmar has been mired in civil war for decades since its independence in 1948, primarily between the central government and various ethnic minorities. The 2021 coup d'état, which overthrew the elected civilian government, sparked a new wave of armed resistance against the military junta, which rules with brutality. During 2024, armed clashes intensified, and opposition militias have achieved significant victories on the front lines. In fact, the government is estimated to control only de facto 22% of the territory. According to ACLED data, nearly 20,000 people died last year due to violence associated with the conflict.

Sudan

Sudan's war, one of the most catastrophic and forgotten according to the report, erupted after the fragile transition to democracy that followed a popular uprising in 2019 failed. A military coup took place in 2021, and tensions escalated until the United States rushed to take control of the country in April 2023. It is currently one of the most devastated areas in the world, with more than 15,000 deaths, 8 million displaced, and the absence of a functioning state. Cities have been razed, hunger is widespread, and the conflict is intensifying, with no leadership capable of negotiating a solution.

Sahel

Violence in the Sahel primarily affects Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, but also parts of Benin, Algeria, and Chad. This violence is also fueled by a context of poverty and marginalization of local communities. The civilian population suffers constant attacks and mass displacement, including by government actors who have reacted with indiscriminate violence.

Ethiopia (Amhara)

Following the war in Tigris, a new conflict erupted in April 2023 in Ethiopia's Amhara region, where the local community felt excluded from the peace agreement signed between the federal government and the Tigris People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The perception of betrayal and the proposed dismantling of the regional special forces led many Amhara to join the Fano militias. The government perceived this move as a threat and responded with a high-intensity offensive, marked by serious abuses against civilians. In 2024, at least 6,383 deaths were recorded, well above the 1,730 the previous year.

Haiti

The power vacuum following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 deepened the institutional crisis and gave rise to the proliferation of criminal gangs—often at odds with each other—that have taken control of entire neighborhoods in the capital, Port-au-Prince, and key infrastructure. The violence is so widespread that this is the first year the Escola de Pau report formally classifies it as an armed conflict. The population is trapped between gang violence and collapsed basic services: hundreds of thousands are displaced, and nearly half of Haitians (4.7 million) are suffering from acute hunger.

Somalia

The fall of Siad Barre's dictatorship, overthrown in 1991, left a power vacuum that sparked a civil war. A failed US intervention left Somalia without governance and dependent on international aid. A very strict adherence to Islamic law perpetuates a reign of terror with public executions and harsh punishments. Although a slight decrease in fatalities was recorded in 2024, with 5,396 deaths and 2,712 violent incidents, the conflict remains one of the most intense and devastating on the continent.

Israel – Hezbollah (Lebanon)

Although Hezbollah emerged as a Shiite armed force with Iranian support following Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the conflict—which had been in a fragile lull since 2006—has been reactivated by the escalation of the Israeli campaign in Gaza in September and reached its peak in October, when Israel launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon. The result was more than 4,000 Lebanese dead and a million displaced.

Mali

In 2012, a Tuareg uprising in northern Mali paved the way for jihadist groups like Ansar Dine, who took advantage of the chaos to impose Sharia law, clashing with both the state and the local population. The 2015 peace agreement excluded the jihadists, which led to continued and even expanded violence, especially with the arrival of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner. Thus, the state progressively lost control of the territory, while clashes between the Malian army, Tuareg rebels, and Russian mercenaries became chronic. In January 2024, the military junta terminated the peace agreement, and 4,000 deaths were recorded that year. The humanitarian crisis has left more than 300,000 refugees and displaced people.