NATO bows to Trump and heads toward 5% military spending

BrusselsThe US demand that other NATO allies allocate 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense seemed simply Another Donald Trump stretchbot that would end up forgotten. In fact, until a few weeks ago, members of the Atlantic Alliance only talked about 3% or 3.5%, but they didn't even consider 5%, since it is almost double the average rate of the partners in the world's largest military understanding. However, pressure from the Pentagon, which controls de facto NATO has not let up and has managed to get more and more countries willing to accept an agreement that forces all allies to reach a 5% military spending target.

One of the first countries to show a willingness was Germany, Europe's largest economy. Since then, NATO partners have continued to join, as was evident at the meeting of leaders from Nordic and Eastern European countries this Monday in Vilnius (Lithuania). Fourteen member states signed a statement urging the rest of NATO states to reach the 5%. "We call on all allies to invest more urgently," says the statement agreed upon by countries such as Denmark, Poland, and Romania.

These countries are the ones that feel the threat of expansionism from Vladimir Putin's regime most closely, for both geographical and historical reasons. However, its position contrasts with that of other allies, who find it less urgent and are more skeptical about European rearmament, such as Spain, Italy or Belgium.

In fact, Spain is at the bottom of the list in terms of military spending in NATO and is the ally that allocates a lower percentage of their wealth. At this point, it stands at around 1.28%, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's plan aims to bring this rate to 2% before the end of the year. Therefore, at this time, the Moncloa has stated on several occasions that it is not considering increasing this percentage, and NATO diplomatic sources assure that Madrid is leading the opposition to the significant increase in military spending promoted by Trump.

However, all indications are that the Atlantic Alliance will ultimately agree on 5% at the summit to be held in The Hague in two weeks. Although diplomatic sources rule out the possibility of an agreement being reached at the ministerial meeting to be held this Thursday in Brussels, a large number of states have already expressed their willingness to accept the military spending demanded by Trump and intend to have it agreed or nearly agreed upon before the leaders' meeting in The Hague. He is also expected to put pressure on US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who will attend the meeting in the Belgian capital, in this regard.

The 1.5% + 3.5% formula

NATO allies are moving toward accepting the 5% demanded by the Pentagon, but with a formula that allows states, when push comes to shove, to end up spending less. This way, European partners wouldn't have to increase their military spending as much, and at the same time, Trump could boast that he's forced European states to increase their defense spending as much as he had originally requested.

The formula now on the table is known as 3.5%+1.5%, according to NATO sources. Allies should spend at least 3.5% of their wealth on more traditional defense—that is, soldiers, tanks, planes, or missiles. The other 1.5%, on the other hand, would include a broader concept of what is considered security and could also include cybersecurity, the fight against terrorism, or border control.

Currently, only the first portion is counted as military spending, and if the broader security framework is included, NATO partners will automatically increase the percentage of GDP they allocate to defense. This would make it easier for European NATO states to reach the 5% Trump is demanding by 2032, the year in which allies are expected to agree on this target, according to the same NATO sources.