The war reaches space: a Russian satellite is chasing a Ukrainian one

MoscowIt is difficult to avoid the obvious cinematic reference in the latest episode of the conflict in Ukraine. In recent days, a Russian satellite has been chasing another American one used by the Ukrainian army and, finally, they have abruptly changed direction, in what experts warn could be considered the first example of space warfare in history. However, the real version of Star Wars is not as epic as the famous saga, nor is it fought with laser swords. In the midst of the battle for communications, with Donald Trump using Starlink to pressure Volodymyr Zelensky, and Vladimir Putin trying to build his own network of satellites, the Russian device could have inaugurated a new form of combat in Earth's orbit.

For weeks, the Russian military satellite Kosmos-2612 approached to within a few meters of the ICEYE-X36 radar, manufactured by a company from Finland and the United States. While the purpose of the former is unknown because Moscow has not made it public, the latter performs a commercial function and provides images of the Earth's surface that Kyiv uses for military intelligence. Both weigh only about a hundred kilograms, fly at about 27,000 kilometers per hour, and observers warn that, for this reason, the situation has become "very worrying". "Any approach between objects in orbit at less than a kilometer is considered critical," says Georgui Trixkin, a rocket launch analyst.

Furthermore, there is no doubt that this is a "completely unsolicited" approach, according to Dutch satellite expert Marco Langbroek, who has been following the trajectory of both devices since the summer. Initially, he admits he was skeptical about the Russian operators' intentions, but now he considers that "we may be witnessing the first case of an attack by a satellite in orbit".

Trixkin, on the other hand, believes that the strategy is more sophisticated: from his point of view, Russia was not seeking an interception to neutralize the Ukrainian device, but was pushing it to the limit to wear it down, force it to exhaust its fuel, and leave it unusable. "If this precedent is successful, we will start to see similar cases rapidly and frequently," he warns. However, he also clarifies that if it is proven that this is indeed the tactic, we will not be able to know if it has yielded results for up to a year.

Be that as it may, this incident opens a new front of colossal dimensions in the tension between the Kremlin and the West. Until now, Russia, the United States, and China had proven that they were capable of shooting down their own satellites with missiles, but never before had one of these artifacts deliberately pursued another from an enemy country. The Russian threat, moreover, is directed against a commercial device from a NATO member state, but in a gray area, because in space there are no national jurisdictions. That is to say, it does not cross a red line.

The struggle for Starlink

From the first day of the invasion, when a Russian cyberattack disabled the satellite that provided connection to thousands of Ukrainian users, the conflict has highlighted the importance of blocking or degrading radionavigation signals. Electronic interference can hinder the use of GPS and military communications without the need to physically attack any satellite. Both Russian electronic warfare capabilities and the transmission channels used by the Ukrainian army are part of this technological competition.

The clearest example of this struggle is the dispute over Starlink, Elon Musk's satellite network. This system offers Ukrainian troops broadband connection, unit-to-unit communications, and key support for drone operations. Russia managed to hack it and benefit from it furtively, but in February, at Zelensky's request, the tycoon deprived them of access. This was a hard blow for Russian soldiers, who in some cases were left in the dark on the front lines and remained at the mercy of the Ukrainians. Now, however, it is the Ukrainian forces that are suffering sudden restrictions on this service. The White House denies having ordered them, although they fully coincide with the clash between Trump and Zelensky over Kyiv's attacks against Russian refineries.

To avoid this vulnerability and dependence on Western technology, Putin has tried to promote his own satellite constellation, Rassvet. However, the program is still far from the scale of Starlink. Some of the thirty or so devices that have been launched have been lost, others have not reached the intended orbit, and analyses indicate that the coverage they guarantee is intermittent. Of the 156 devices that Russia had proposed to have operational by the end of the year, it has currently only launched 32, while the project needs hundreds of satellites to become useful.