Venezuela rearms in the face of Trump's threats

Buenos AiresSince Donald Trump announced on Tuesday, in passing, at a press conference, that They had just "shot at a drug-carrying boat" in the southern Caribbean Sea, that the boat came from Venezuela and that eleven people were killed in the operation, the focus has been on the reaction of President Nicolás Maduro: not only as president of an attacked country, but as a member of a region, Latin America and the Caribbean, that has not been intervened in for decades.

Venezuela's insistence on denying the attack on the vessel and attributing the released video of the downed boat to an artificial intelligence creation has not prevented an unprecedented rearmament process within the country. Even before the attack, when the US threat was limited to the deployment of ships and aircraft in the waters of the CaribbeanThe Venezuelan government has already begun militia recruitment campaigns, which, according to Maduro, have attracted more than four million people. Following the alleged attack, the president has ordered the activation of new "communal militia units," which would include the incorporation of another eight million people into the national defense system.

"The numbers don't add up, arithmetically," Modesto Emilio Guerrero, an analyst, founder of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, and biographer of Hugo Chávez, told the ARA newspaper; "but in a war, propaganda comes first, and then the war begins." According to this expert, Venezuela today would not have the military capacity to wage war against the United States: "Perhaps it would resist it, but that's different." Furthermore, Guerrero maintains that "many people in Latin America and many governments that are neither friendly nor favorable to Maduro would defend Venezuela in a state of military intervention."

In fact, most member states of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) have rejected the US military presence at the region's doorstep. This has not been the case for Argentina, Ecuador, and El Salvador, which are explicitly hostile to the Venezuelan government and have distanced themselves from the statement. However, countries such as Chile and Brazil—currently critical of Maduro's administration—have joined them and uphold the importance of "strict respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity" of the region. The most forcefully opposed to US military threats has been Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who has deployed his own troops on the border with Venezuela. and has compared the US intervention to previous episodes in Syria and Iraq.

Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the dismantling of drug cartels and immigration issues involving both countries. The meeting, details of which have not been disclosed, had a "very good" outcome, according to Sheinbaum herself, who described Venezuela as having set a "worthy example" of regional sovereignty vis-à-vis the United States.

The future of Maduro and oil

In an interview with the newspaper ARA, Alejandro Corbacho, a security and defense expert at CEMA University in Argentina, downplays the statements made so far by Latin American leaders in the context of the conflict between Venezuela and the United States: "They don't carry much weight," he says. In fact, he believes they are "in a waiting period, in which the actors are deploying their actions and, possibly, negotiations will soon take place to see if Maduro leaves power."

This is the expectation and hope of the Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado, who has remained underground since last year's presidential elections. Machado's party, Vente Venezuela, asserted that they are prepared to lead "an orderly and peaceful transition to democracy."

In line with the Donald Trump administration, Machado accuses Nicolás Maduro of leading the "Cartel of the Suns," an organization that the White House has labeled a terrorist organization and which has initially served as the pretext for the military deployment on the Venezuelan coast. However, according to analyst Guerrero, "Venezuela doesn't have a tradition of cartels—as Mexico or Colombia do—because it's not a drug-producing territory." Aside from this, more than 70% of the drug route from Latin America to the United States passes through the Pacific Ocean, but not the Caribbean or the Atlantic.

What is abundant in Venezuela is oil: "What can be done to seize the largest oil reserves known on the planet to date? Should we occupy the state and govern," Guerrero suggests.