The US and Russia agree to resume military dialogue that broke down in 2021

MoscowThe Abu Dhabi talks between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States, were intended to bring an end to the war. However, in the end, no progress was made toward ending the conflict, while the only thing that has improved is the relationship between Moscow and Washington. Behind the scenes, both powers have agreed to resume high-level military dialogue, suspended in 2021 shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and are negotiating at the last minute to save the New START treaty, the last remaining agreement limiting nuclear weapons, which expires this Thursday, according to reports. AxiosContacts between high-ranking Russian and US military officials were frozen as a result of deteriorating relations between the two governments in the lead-up to the war in Ukraine. The decision to reestablish them was made at a meeting in the United Arab Emirates between General Alexus Grynkewich, head of US European Command, and senior Russian and Ukrainian military officials. In a statement, the Americans affirmed that this restoration is "an important factor for global stability and peace." Among Grynkewich's powers as NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe is the ability to maintain a direct line to the Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerassimov. Meanwhile, just hours before the expiration of the nuclear arms control treaty signed by Russia and the United States, the parties have left the door open to continuing to observe it "in good faith" even after its expiration. As reported by the US media outlet, the Kremlin and the White House are expected to respect the terms of the agreement for another six months, a period that would allow time to negotiate a possible new treaty, although experts consider this timeframe insufficient. In any case, it must first be ratified by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

The Russian president has been pressing his counterpart for months to accept a one-year extension of the agreement, and Trump has chosen to ignore him, fixated on the idea that a new document is needed that also compels China to halt its nuclear development. For now, the Russian president's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has only said that Russia is willing to begin a dialogue with the United States "if there are constructive responses to the initiative to extend the restrictions," although he has not confirmed that work is underway on an extension.

No progress on Ukraine

The White House has also been keen to portray the original objective of the talks—peace negotiations for Ukraine—as a success. Although the US president has declared that the end of the conflict is "very close," the reality is that there has been no progress on the core issues: the sovereignty of Donbas and security guarantees for Kyiv. However, the parties have agreed to continue discussing these issues in a third round in the coming weeks. In this effort to offer progress, Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, present in Abu Dhabi, loudly announced the exchange of 157 Russian and Ukrainian prisoners on each side. The swap took place this afternoon on the Belarusian border, and Witkoff presented it as a "tangible" result of the talks. In fact, the previous exchange was just in October, and several others had been carried out before that, some involving more than a thousand prisoners per side. This was the sole outcome of the direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul last spring, and at that time, US mediation was not necessary.

A Western source involved in the talks explained to the Russian news agency TASS that, for Moscow, it is not only essential that the Ukrainian army withdraw from Donbas, but also that this territory be internationally recognized as Russian. Volodymyr Zelensky responded that even if someone were to recognize Ukrainian territories as Russian, "it would be pointless," since only he has the authority to relinquish them. "Our territories are ours," he concluded.

Regarding security guarantees, the versions leaked by Western allies are unacceptable to Russia. According to what has been published by Financial TimesIt is proposed that, in the event of a Russian attack on Kyiv, the Ukrainian army would respond within the first 24 hours. Members of the volunteer coalition would then join in, and finally, there would be an intervention involving the United States. This would avoid deploying foreign troops on Ukrainian territory, one of the Kremlin's red lines.

The delegations reiterated how "significant" and "productive" the meetings had been, aware that more important than progress is demonstrating to the hosts their commitment to peace. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga, after the first round, celebrated the end of the "pseudo-historical conferences," referring to the defiant and lecturing tone of the head of the Russian delegation in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky. Now the talks are "very focused," he added. Perhaps so, but the results are the same.