Twenty years to obtain permanent residency: the British recipe against immigration

LondonSince he arrived in government sixteen months agoLabour is trying to combat illegal immigration arriving via the English Channel as if it were the magic formula that will solve all its problems, which are many. Following the cabinet reshuffle in September, forced by the fall from grace of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, he premier Keir Starmer—increasingly unpopular and under increasing pressure within his own party—appointed Shabana Mahmood, the daughter of immigrants and considered a tough negotiator on such sensitive issues as border security and immigration, as Minister of the Interior. Two months later, Mahmood's time has come to live up to her reputation. This Monday, she will present a series of legal measures in Parliament aimed at curbing the arrival of migrant boats, the most severe in decades. Incidentally, she will also begin laying the groundwork for her aspirations to succeed Starmer.She is not the only member of the government who wants the leadership—, whom analysts do not foresee having a political future beyond May. The elections in Scotland, Wales, and parts of England could spell his downfall, if the polls prove accurate and the Reform Party of xenophobe Nigel Farage She gets the lion's share.

In the race to position herself well in the running to replace Starmer, Minister Mahmood has authorized an unprecedented strategy: a communications campaign with explicit images showing wrecked boats, desperate migrants in the freezing water, children trapped on vessels, frozen or crushed if they attempt the crossing from France.

The photographs, which would not normally be permitted in government advertising, received the minister's personal approval due to what she described as the "extreme gravity" of the situation. In statements to the BBC on Sunday, hours before her appearance in Parliament, she described it as a "moral mission" in the face of illegal immigration that "is elusive." The advertisements explain, without euphemism, that the crossings can last up to twelve hours, that the boats break apart in the middle of the sea, that the life jackets provided by traffickers are ineffective, and that the fuel used in the speedboats burns the skin. "Many children have died this way. If you get on a boat, you could kill someone, including a child," states one of the messages in the propaganda.

The campaign is part of a joint effort with France to convey that illegal entry will result in immediate detention and swift deportation. The central measure stipulates that individuals recognized as refugees will have to wait twenty years before being eligible for permanent residency, instead of the current five. Furthermore, their status will be reviewed regularly, and those from countries deemed safe will be required to return. The reform package also aims to expedite deportations, expand the number of offenses that trigger automatic expulsion, and require judges to prioritize public safety over arguments related to the right to life, family reunification, and the risk of inhumane treatment in countries of origin. Mahmood also does not rule out targeted reforms to the European Convention on Human Rights to prevent, he says, "abuses of the system that delay or block justified returns." According to official figures, deportations have increased by 23% since Labour came to power – 48,560 people expelled, including foreign criminals and asylum seekers – but arrivals across the Channel continue to rise: 39,075 people, up from 45,755.

The model Danish is present in many of these approachesThe system, which expels 95% of unsuccessful applicants and has driven asylum grants to a historic low, has been studied on the ground by senior officials from the British Home Office. Denmark, in fact, restricts family reunification, limits the stay of many refugees to temporary permits, and tightens the requirements for obtaining permanent residency, including finding work and living outside the so-called "parallel societies," neighborhoods where the majority of residents are of non-Western origin. London is considering applying a softer version of these rules, but with a clear shift towards restriction: the government has suspended family reunifications until it drafts new, stricter regulations.

The Boris Johnson Wave

Labour's shift in tackling immigration has also opened another front: the management of so-called Boriswave migrantsThe wave of 1.6 million people who have legally arrived in the UK between 2021 and 2024 under the immigration regime championed by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. More than half – 879,000 – earn below-average British wages, which, according to the Home Office, could drastically increase the cost of social benefits when they become eligible for permanent residency after five years. Mahmood, in fact, wants to extend this period to ten years and link it to strict conditions: having paid social security contributions, not having received benefits, having a clean criminal record, having done volunteer work, and demonstrating a high level of English. Hong Kong citizens would be exempt. This package puts Labour in a tougher position than many party members would like. Some left-leaning MPs warn that the Danish-style measures have "echoes of the far right." But Downing Street believes the electoral battle is now on the right flank. In September, Nigel Farage He promised even stronger measures, How to withdraw permanent residency status from hundreds of thousands of non-EU citizens, and mass deportations, while the Conservatives defend an annual immigration cap voted on by Parliament.

Mahmood sums up the government's new direction with a phrase that now defines the entire debate: "Legal routes are the only way to the UK." The problem, if there is one, is that there are fewer and fewer of them. The future of British immigration policy—and the electoral prospects of Labour in general and Keir Starmer in particular—will depend on whether this new shift in strategy is enough to convince increasingly impatient voters.

The great paradox is that the UK needs immigration. The population is aging rapidly: nearly 19% are over 65, and this proportion will increase in the coming decades. At the same time, natural growth is virtually zero, because births barely exceed deaths. According to projections from the Office for National Statistics, almost all population growth until 2032 will come from clean immigration, which is already the country's main demographic driver. Without this influx, the UK would experience population stagnation or decline, with a smaller working-age population and greater pressure on pensions and public services. Therefore, both economists and demographers agree that immigration is key to sustaining the labor market and offsetting the rapid aging of British society.