Trump's diplomacy: deceitful, it works

WashingtonDonald Trump has always played by his own rules. At home and abroad. The real estate mogul's return to the White House promised a shift in Washington's foreign policy. The Republican's first 276 days in the Oval Office have been a string of threats written in capital letters on Truth Social, unilateral declarations, surprise announcements, a few bombings—whether against Iranian nuclear facilities or alleged "narco-savages"—and many worthy plot twists.

Unpredictability is the hallmark of the US president, who has established methods that would have been unthinkable—and highly reprehensible—for any of his predecessors. "Although what draws most attention are the methods, more important than that is how he dedicates himself to planting a reality that has not yet been formed in people's heads. This is what he did with the ceasefire in Gaza," the former Department of Defense consultant and vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council explained to ARA.

Trump has not stopped sell the fragile truce as peaceThe Egyptian summit was dubbed the "peace summit" in bold letters, with some twenty international leaders attending the Republican's hand-kissing ceremony. The president keeps repeating that he has managed to bring peace to the region after hundreds of years of conflict, but the reality is that not even his administration is capable of explaining what the Hamas disarmament process will look like or what will happen to the demands for recognition of the Palestinian state.

Last weekend Israel bombed Gaza again. and Trump kept talking about peace. As the Americans say, it's the "fake it until you make it" (fake it till you make it) taken to diplomacy. "He creates the concept and then acts as if both sides have agreed on this idea, with the expectation that this is what's happening. The ceasefire is not the same as a peace agreement; it doesn't automatically move the conversation to the 20-point plan, because the plan includes things like Hamas disarming and no longer being the controlling force in Gaza, and they're not giving any indication that they intend to do that," Berman reflects. "The longer that goes by without real, significant pressure on Hamas, the more likely it is that the United States will have to get directly involved in some way," he concludes.

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"It's definitely the style of a businessman. He makes deals like a businessman would: building personal relationships with other leaders, talking man to man," says Daniel Green, a professor of international relations at the University of Delaware. It's an obsession that has been evident both in his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—with whom Trump has a close relationship—and with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump has become obsessed with getting closer to Putin on a personal level, but as Green points out, he's realizing that he's not just negotiating in a personal capacity, but as a representative of a country.

"He's doing it little by little because almost all of his advisors agree with him, but he's starting to realize that Putin is not a friend of the United States. And I think Rubio is also working to make him see that," Green notes. Trump admitted on Wednesday to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: "CEvery time I talk to Putin I have good conversations, but they don't go anywhere.". The cooling with Moscow was noticeable in the package of sanctions against Russian oil companies –the first since returning to power–, and in Trump's statement, that in the last week he has not stopped changing course: from promising Volodymyr Zelensky Tomahawks to intimidate Putin, to privately booing the Ukrainian, and then punishing Russia with sanctions.

"I don't think the unpredictability is premeditated, but rather he experiences diplomacy in a very personal way. When he gets frustrated, as we've seen with Putin or Netanyahu, he quickly makes it known that he's upset," Green points out. A good part of the announcements and warnings are based on angry posts on Truth Social, something that is unconventional and far from diplomatic forms, but which Green believes "has actually worked for him at times." However, these are "short-term" victories, since the unpredictability of behavior and the aggressiveness that the president has shown with some allies – such as Europe – could lead to the US ending up "isolated." "Other countries will start looking for ways to operate outside the United States, and that's already happening. Canada is now much closer to Europe, and we have very poor relations with Canada. The US will become even more isolated as a result of Trump's unpredictability," the professor reflects.