Is the Gaza ceasefire at risk? Netanyahu debates between Trump and the Israeli far right.

BeirutBenjamin Netanyahu is going through a particularly delicate political moment. After almost two-week ceasefire with Hamas, the governing coalition in Israel faces the approval in the first reading of a bill providing for the annexation of part of the West BankThe initiative has generated concern in Washington. President Donald Trump expressed his discontent, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Tel Aviv to monitor the situation and warn of possible diplomatic repercussions.

Netanyahu must now balance the demands of his most radical right, which considers annexation a priority objective, with the expectations of his main international ally, whose support remains decisive for Israel's political and military stability, both in Gaza and in the north of the country. In this context, the ceasefire with Hamas has ushered in a period of relative calm in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu agreed to maintain the truce, although he stressed that each measure would be taken according to the "security conditions" defined by his government, reflecting the constant tension between diplomatic commitments and domestic priorities.

However, the truce is fragile. According to the Hamas government, Israel has violated the ceasefire on numerous occasions, resulting in the deaths of dozens of Palestinians and the injuries of hundreds. Furthermore, the entry of humanitarian aid remains blocked: food, medical supplies, and water have not been able to cross authorized points, and many International organizations have denounced the critical shortage of essential resourcesThis situation keeps the population of Gaza in a highly vulnerable position, despite the relative calm on the military front.

Within Netanyahu's coalition, the far-right partners remain vigilant, but for now have moderated their warnings, aware that any frontal challenge could destabilize the government at a critical moment. Washington, meanwhile, is demanding tangible progress. US officials have traveled to Jerusalem to verify compliance with the agreement. The White House wants visible results: the release of all hostages, sustained humanitarian aid, and a reduction in hostilities.

"Netanyahu's margin has narrowed. Washington wants results, not promises," notes Michael Koplow, policy director of the New York-based Israel Policy Forum. Netanyahu's dilemma is how to maintain his narrative of strength within a framework negotiated by his main ally. In public, he insists that the ceasefire does not mark the end of the war and that Israel will retain freedom of military action. He seeks to reassure his hardline constituency and coalition partners.

In practice, two weeks into the ceasefire, the government has moderated military operations, facilitated the flow—albeit very limited—of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and troops remain at strategic locations, interpreted as a security measure within the framework of the agreement. Netanyahu is playing for time. "Against Washington, he promises to deliver; against the right, he claims to resist," says Koplow, adding that this double standard "gives him room to survive." "His strategy isn't about resolving the conflict, but rather managing it in a way that doesn't threaten his hold on power. It's not about whether he wants peace, but rather what kind of peace he accepts and under what political conditions," he points out.

The Great Tightrope Walker

The ceasefire also puts the relationship with the United States to the test. Although Trump avoids direct confrontation, his administration has made it clear that support for Israel will not be unconditional. Washington wants to stabilize the region and promote a political horizon in Gaza that includes the Palestinian Authority. For Netanyahu, that possibility is a red line. Giving ground would mean admitting that his military strategy failed to eliminate Hamas's influence.

In Israel, the focus is now on the effective implementation of the ceasefire. The release of most of the Israeli hostages has reduced public pressure and helped calm public opinion. Every political or military gesture is interpreted as a signal. A targeted bombing can be an internal message to the right; a discreet meeting with US emissaries, a diplomatic concession. As political scientist Gideon Rahat explains, "Netanyahu has mastered this language. It is his way of governing: resisting, postponing, balancing. His political career has been a long demonstration of survival." But this time the margin is narrower. If he breaks with the far right, the government falls. If he defies Washington, he risks diplomatic isolation that Israel cannot afford.

The coming weeks will be decisive. The Israeli withdrawal and international supervision of Gaza will test the prime minister's ability to sustain his strategy. For now, Netanyahu continues to buy time. But with each passing day, the tension between Jerusalem and Washington tightens a little further.