Trump conditions agreement with Iran on normalization of relations with Israel

BarcelonaWhen the agreement between the United States and Iran seemed imminent, Donald Trump has made a new U-turn and has conditioned the understanding on the Gulf countries normalizing relations with Israel, its historic regional rival. In a message on his Truth Social network, the American president has urged the mediating states, starting with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to sign the so-called Abraham Accords – which explicitly include this normalization – if they want the pact that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened to prosper.

"I am mandatorily asking that all countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords, and if Iran signs its agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an honor for it to also be part of this unprecedented global coalition," wrote the leader, who also invited Tehran to join the accords. Trump was addressing Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, all countries that have helped mediate the agreement and with whom Trump reportedly spoke by phone on Saturday. The American president defended this signing because it would represent an "unprecedented global coalition" and would leave the Middle East "united, powerful, and economically strong as surely no other region on the planet." "If they don't, they shouldn't be part of this agreement, as it shows bad faith," he added.

At present, only Pakistan has publicly rejected the offer, while the rest of the countries have refrained from commenting on a proposal that seems at least improbable, given the disapproval that Muslim states have for Israel's military offensive in Gaza. The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, two regional powers allied with Washington but historically rivals, would represent a first-order change in Middle East geopolitics. In fact, the United States had already tried to foster this rapprochement under the Democratic administration of Joe Biden, but negotiations broke down after the Hamas attacks of October 7 and the brutal Israeli offensive on Gaza.

The "mandatory" demand of the Republican leader comes at a time of high diplomatic tension, when the negotiating teams of the United States and Iran assured that the agreement to stop the fighting and reopen Hormuz was "closer than ever". As had been leaked to various media, the principle of agreement between the two countries foresees reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions on Iran, unblocking Iranian funds, and a 60-day truce to negotiate a nuclear pact.

Both sides assured this morning that there is consensus in some areas of the agreement, but they disagree on how and when it should be announced. This morning, the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, from New Delhi, celebrated that the American and Iranian negotiating teams have "something quite solid on the table" and that an agreement could be reached imminently. But he also warned that, if the diplomatic route does not bear fruit, he will consider dealing with Iran "in another way".

For its part, Tehran has confirmed that there is a negotiation framework, but has clarified that the understanding does not necessarily have to be announced soon. The spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baghaei, has implied that the agreement would precisely involve the end of hostilities, but that the nuclear issue would be left out of the equation, as well as the details of the management of the Strait of Hormuz (and, therefore, the possibility that Iran could charge a toll there).

Despite the disagreements, negotiations continue. The Iranian delegation, led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Speaker of Parliament, traveled to Qatar this Monday and met with the country's prime minister to deepen talks to end the war. According to sources cited by various media outlets, the critical points they have discussed are the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz – here Iran insists on its right to charge a toll – and the enriched uranium reserves, which Washington wants Tehran to get rid of at all costs.

Israel intensifies attacks on Lebanon

Who views the draft being discussed with ill eyes is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is not willing to abandon the fighting in southern Lebanon, as Tehran demands. Netanyahu, who already showed this concern with a call to Trump on Saturday, has made it clear that he has no intention of subordinating his plans in Lebanon to the peace deal with Iran. If yesterday he assured that he had Washington's approval to defend himself against threats from all fronts – in clear reference to Lebanon –, today he has stated that he will intensify attacks against Hezbollah.

The Israeli executive is closely following, but not from the front line, the evolution of the negotiations and is trying to pressure its ally in the White House as much as possible to align itself with its interests in the region. In a post on Telegram, on Sunday, he insisted that it is necessary to "eliminate the nuclear threat" posed by Iran.

Tel Aviv has also not publicly positioned itself on Trump's attempt to include mediating countries in the Abraham Accords. Some analysts see in this gesture an attempt to make the agreement with Iran more digestible for Israel. "Trump is trying to sell a deal with Iran as a sequel to the Abraham Accords: good for Israel, good for the region, tough enough for Washington," said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, in statements to Reuters. But the expert insisted that Trump "is trading one fantasy for another": if he initially assured that he would force Iran to surrender, he now pretends to feign that the agreement can impose a new order in the Middle East.