A "toned-down" independence movement aspires to govern Wales

LondonWith the Welsh national elections on the horizon next year, the country's political landscape was shaken ten days ago by an earthquake that could foreshadow more significant shifts — one that may have major consequences not only in Cardiff but also in Westminster. On 23 October, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, achieved a historic victory in a traditional Labour stronghold in the Caerphilly by-election, around 20 kilometres from the capital. For a century of Westminster elections — and since 1999 in the Senedd (the Welsh Parliament) — the seat had been held by Labour. Against all odds, Plaid Cymru won with 47% of the vote, almost 4,000 more votes than Reform, which came second. Plaid secured 12,000 more votes than Labour, relegated to a humiliating third place. The Conservatives fared even worse.

The victory has strengthened the leadership of Rhun ap Iorwerth, who, according to political history professor Marc Collison of Bangor University, “toned down” the independence demand during the campaign in order to broaden the party’s base and reach beyond its traditional heartlands. “Independence would not be an issue for a Plaid government to address immediately after an election, even if it won a majority of seats in the Senedd,” he tells ARA.

The campaign, focused on funding, jobs and healthcare, capitalised on Labour’s decline — after holding power in Cardiff since 1999 — and presented itself as the strongest progressive alternative to the rise of Nigel Farage and his populist, anti-immigration Reform Party. Reform currently leads polls across the United Kingdom and is consolidating itself as a growing threat to Westminster’s historic Conservative-Labour duopoly.

More support for independence?

But can Plaid Cymru’s victory really be read as a sign of growing support for independence? A poll commissioned in April by YesCymru, a pro-independence group, showed that 41% of voters with a firm opinion on the issue would vote in favour in a hypothetical — albeit highly unlikely — referendum. In any case, sociologist Robin Mann, also a professor at Bangor University, notes that “the most striking finding is that support rises to 72% among young people aged 25 to 34.” Conversely, older generations, especially those aged 65 and above, remain firmly on the “no” side, with around 80% opposed. The data suggests “a major shift in public sentiment” regarding perceptions of the nation, Mann emphasises.

However, he does not believe this necessarily means “Wales is becoming more nationalist.” Rather, it may reflect a more pragmatic attitude, in which “part of the support for independence centres on demands for greater devolution” following disillusionment with Labour. Similarly, Collison argues that “it is unlikely independence played a significant role in the Caerphilly result.” Be that as it may, Iorwerth and Plaid Cymru must now maintain this momentum until the Senedd elections on 7 May 2026, which will coincide with polls to renew the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh, and local elections in London.

Be that as it may, the challenge for Iorwerth and the Welsh nationalists is now to maintain this momentum until the Senedd elections on May 7, 2026, which will also coincide with the call to the polls to renew the Welsh Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh, and the local elections in London.

The problem is named Keir Starmer

If momentum continues to favour Plaid in Wales, and if results in Scotland confirm SNP dominance — or, alternatively, a surge for Reform, a scenario that cannot be ruled out in the English local elections either — Keir Starmer’s leadership could enter a period of acute fragility “after problems in his first year” in government, according to Professor Collison.

So is the British Prime Minister, rather than a genuine surge in pro-independence sentiment, to blame for Labour’s defeat in Caerphilly? Sources close to Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan say she believes “the prime minister is the problem,” and that this leaves her “very frustrated.” Whatever Morgan does, they insist, she finds it difficult to escape the dynamics imposed by Westminster. In other words, Plaid has been seen as the progressive alternative to the far-right populism represented by Farage.

“The burden is Starmer,” the sources continue. “Eluned Morgan continues to enjoy fairly positive approval. The problem is the Labour brand. Voters blame the party for NHS waiting lists, the housing shortage and economic stagnation. Starmer doesn’t seem to help, and he does not connect well with Wales’s more social-democratic political culture.” Collison agrees, noting: “Starmer’s election in Westminster and mid-term concerns over his government’s performance — and the lack of improved funding for Wales — appear to have damaged the Welsh government’s popularity. In the coming months, he will have to navigate contradictions that echo those already faced by the SNP in Scotland.”