A "toned-down" independence movement aspires to govern Wales

LondonWith the Welsh national elections next year on the horizon, the country's political landscape was shaken ten days ago by an earthquake that could foreshadow more significant shifts, and which might even have a major impact not only in Cardiff but also in Westminster. On October 23, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, will achieve a historic victory in a traditional Labor stronghold, in the by-election in the Caerphilly constituency, about 20 kilometers from the capital. For a century of elections in Westminster, and since 1999 in the Senedd (the Welsh Parliament), the constituency had been held by Labour. Against all odds, Plaid Cymru won with 47% of the vote, almost 4,000 more votes than the Reform Party, which came in second. Plaid obtained 12,000 more votes than Labour, relegated to a humiliating third place. The Conservatives fared even worse. The victory has strengthened the leadership of Rhun ap Iorwerth, who, according to political history professor Marc Collison of Bangor University, has "toned down" on the independence demand during the campaign in order to broaden the party's base and reach beyond its traditional strongholds. "Independence would not be an issue for a Plaid government to address after an election, even if it won a majority of seats in the Senedd," he tells ARA.

The campaign, focused on funding, jobs, and healthcare, has capitalized on the decline of Labour, which has been in power in Cardiff since 1999, and presented itself as the strongest progressive alternative to the rise of the populist and xenophobic Nigel Farage and his Reform Party. This party He leads the polls across the entire United Kingdom. and is consolidating itself as a growing threat to the historic status quo Westminster, traditionally dominated by Conservatives and Labour.

More support for independence?

But can Plaid Cymru's victory really be read as a symptom of growing support for independence? April surveyA poll commissioned by YesCymru, a pro-independence group, showed that 41% of voters with a formed opinion on the issue would vote in favor in a hypothetical, but highly improbable, referendum. In any case, sociologist Robin Mann, also a professor at Bangor University, points out that "the surprising conclusion [of the poll] is that the figure [of supporters of independence] rises to 72% among young people aged 25 to 34." Conversely, older generations, especially those 65 and over, would remain firmly on the "no" side, which would garner 80% of these votes. The data indicates, in any case, "a major shift in public sentiment" regarding the perception of the country, Mann emphasizes. But the sociologist does not believe this necessarily implies "that Wales is becoming more nationalist." Perhaps more pragmatic, insofar as "part of the support for independence is centered on [the demand for] a greater devolution of powers" following disillusionment with Labour. Along the same lines, and according to Collison, "it is unlikely that independence played a significant role in the outcome" of Caerphilly.

Be that as it may, the challenge for Iorwerth and the Welsh nationalists is now to maintain this momentum until the Senedd elections on May 7, 2026, which will also coincide with the call to the polls to renew the Welsh Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh, and the local elections in London.

The problem is named Keir Starmer

If the wind continues to blow in Plaid's favor in Wales and the results in Scotland confirm the SNP's dominance—or confirm the rise of the Reform Party, a scenario that cannot be ruled out in the English local elections either—Keir Starmer's leadership could enter a phase of extreme fragility, "after problems in his first year," in government of Westminster, according to Professor Collison.

Is the British Prime Minister, then, to blame for Labour's defeat in Caerphilly, rather than a genuine desire for independence among a segment of the Welsh population? Sources very close to the First Minister of Wales, Labour's Eluned Morgan, told the ARA that she believes "the premier "That's the problem," which makes "Eluned very frustrated." Whatever she does, she finds it difficult to break free from the "dynamics that define Westminster," they insist. In other words, Plaid has been seen as the progressive alternative to the far-right populism that Farage represents. The burden that is Starmer: "Eluned Morgan continues to enjoy fairly positive regard. The problem is the Labour brand. Voters blame the party for NHS waiting lists, the housing shortage, and stagnation. Starmer doesn't seem to help either, and he doesn't connect well with the more social-democratic political culture in Wales." A judgment that Collison also shares when he comments: "Starmer's election in Westminster and midterm concerns about his government's performance (and the lack of improved funding for Wales) appear to have affected the popularity of M~'s government. In the coming months, he is set to ride some contradictions that evoke those already traversed in Scotland by the SNP.," says the sociologist.