The war is causing tension among the Gulf countries, which are studying the risks of retaliating.

BarcelonaAlthough a growing number of voices argue that Israel dragged the US into the war against Iran, and that Israeli bombs killed its supreme leader, the Jewish state has not been the primary target of Tehran's attacks. That distinction, by far, belongs to the United Arab Emirates, which has suffered nearly 2,000 attacks since the start of hostilities. Their neighbors in the Persian Gulf have also not been spared from being targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. However, so far, none have responded to these aggressions. Is this situation sustainable?

To answer this question, we must understand how these countries perceive the war equation. So far, they have opted for the formula they believed could lead to a quicker end to hostilities, aware that The longer the conflict lasts, the more their economic model will be damaged.And that strategy has consisted of pressuring Washington privately to cease its attacks, while discreetly opening channels of communication with Tehran to explore a ceasefire and a resumption of negotiations with Washington. In their public statements, however, the Gulf countries have strongly condemned the attacks by the Islamic Republic and reserved the right to respond when they deem it appropriate. For example, this week, following a bombing of its main natural gas field, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari declared that Iranian provocations "cannot go unanswered" and that Tehran "will have to pay a price." At the same time, the Gulf leaders also expressed their disagreement with Washington for starting the war and insisted on their neutrality. While the Gulf petro-monarchies have attempted to coordinate their positions within the Gulf Security Council, their speeches are often delivered in different tones. The most critical of the Trump administration has been Oman, the country that acted as mediator before the outbreak of the war and which has historically maintained smoother relations with Tehran.

Criticism in Washington and Tel Aviv

In an article published in the weekly The EconomistOman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, asserts that the US "has lost control of its foreign policy," implying that Israel is now directing it, and describes Iran's attacks against its neighbors as "inevitable, though deeply regrettable and completely unacceptable."

In the event of a military response against the ayatollahs' regime, it would probably It would come from one of the two countries with the most powerful army: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.None of the other states—Qatar, Bahrain, or Kuwait, all small in size—will dare to confront a giant of 90 million people like Iran. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have modernized their militaries and possess the capability to carry out precision bombings against Iranian targets. So far, both countries have refrained from doing so because they have considered that, operationally, their entry into the war would be of little use, since adding a few hundred attacks to the more than 7,000 carried out by the US and Israel would not have brought about a capitulation from Tehran. However, this calculation could change if Iran were to cross a red line, such as targeting desalination plants in these countries, or if one of its attacks were to cause a significant number of civilian casualties.

Another reason that could exhaust the patience of the Gulf petro-monarchies is that their stocks of Iranian drone and missile interceptors might run out. For the time being, they have opted to ask Ukraine for help. to copy its drone-based air defense system. But if this didn't work, they could attack Iran to deter it from carrying out further attacks. However, this would be a very risky move, as it could achieve the exact opposite: provoke an escalation, a scenario that the Gulf states have sought to avoid since the beginning of the conflict. An alternative way to send a signal to the leaders of the Islamic Republic could be to authorize the use of its military bases by the US to intensify its attacks.