Fewer attacks but more deaths: the war in Ukraine is now 33% more lethal

Barcelona2025 was an extremely difficult year for Ukrainians on the front lines, but also for those on the home front. Civilian casualties from shelling increased by 26%. This is the conclusion of the Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) monitoring group, which recorded 2,248 civilian deaths and 12,493 injuries in Ukraine last year. According to the data, there were fewer attacks last year, but they were more deadly: they left an average of 4.8 civilians dead or wounded, compared to 3.6 in 2024, a 33% increase. The worst attack occurred in Dnipro on June 24, when a barrage of Russian missiles struck a passenger train, apartments, and schools, killing 21 people and injuring 314, including 38 children. According to the organization, this increase points to a change in the nature of the conflict: fewer attacks are causing more deaths. Russia is seeking to inflict more harm on the civilian population "whether through more drone strikes, heavier munitions, the specific targeting of populated areas, or repeated attacks on urban infrastructure." Air strikes primarily explain this increase in mortality, having risen by 126% compared to the previous year. Drones and missiles were responsible for half of all civilian casualties in 2025. In contrast, civilian casualties from ground attacks decreased by 44%.

Nearly seven out of ten civilian casualties recorded by Action on Armed Violence occurred in residential neighborhoods, compared to just over four out of ten in 2024. Cities and towns across the country were affected: the number of regions attacked rose from 28 to 33. KhersonDonetsk, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk were the most affected regions.

For Iain Overton, executive director of AOAV, the figures show that "damage to civilian populations is not collateral damage of war, but an inevitable and predictable outcome when certain weapons are used." "The patterns we are documenting in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and Yemen all point to the same conclusion: without a significant restriction on bombing in populated areas, civilian lives will continue to be shattered long after the headlines fade," he laments.

Fewer victims globally

The organization's data, on the other hand, shows the opposite trend in global records. Worldwide, violence caused by explosives decreased by 24%, and by 18% for weapons use in general. However, the toll remains high: AOAV recorded 45,358 civilian casualties (17,589 dead and 27,769 wounded) worldwide from explosive weapons in 2025, with nearly 97% occurring in populated areas. However, Israel—not Russia—remains the country responsible for the most civilian deaths. Specifically, it accounts for 35% of civilian casualties globally, while Moscow accounts for 32%. In Sudan, where comprehensive monitoring of the conflict is more difficult, the Rapid Support Forces rank third in terms of the number of casualties caused.

Gaza and Ukraine are the two conflicts with the highest number of civilian casualties recorded in 2025. But The deadliest incident occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on June 13.The attack targeted Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In this strike against the Iranian military leadership and nuclear program, Israeli drones and aircraft left 425 casualties, including dead and wounded, 405 of whom were civilians.

The AOAV relies on information published by English-language media to track civilian casualty figures from bombings worldwide. However, the data inevitably underestimates the true number of civilian deaths and injuries.