The United States is entering a government shutdown that could give Trump more power.

WashingtonEarly Wednesday morning, the United States government went into default after the Senate failed to pass a new budget on Tuesday afternoon to fund it until November 21st. After seven in the evening, the 55 votes in favor, far from the 60 needed, made a government shutdown certain. Democrats refused to process the bill after Republicans ignored their requests for healthcare funds. Most federal workers will be temporarily suspended, while Donald Trump's threat of further mass layoffs during this period looms in the air.

The heart-stopping days before government shutdowns are an episode that occasionally repeats itself in Washington, but which is usually saved in extremis. This time, that wasn't the case. Democrats refused to pass a budget in which Republicans refused to include an item to extend Obamacare subsidies and reverse the Medicaid cuts approved with the July fiscal plan, the Big Beautiful Bill..

The US president also saw little incentive to give in to the Democrats' demands because, while a government shutdown can have negative consequences for the day-to-day running of the administration, it gives him more leeway to continue dismantling government structures. During a government shutdown, most workers are sent home without pay, while those deemed essential continue working without pay. It's not until the budget is released that everyone is brought back to work, and salaries are paid retroactively.

Government shutdowns are loosely regulated, so the administration has some discretion to decide what constitutes essential services and what doesn't. For example, during Barack Obama's 2013 government shutdown, national parks were closed, while Trump kept them open during his 2019 government shutdown—although judges later ruled this was illegal. Thus, the situation offers Trump an opportunity to continue advancing his agenda while eroding other areas of government that he believes are not aligned with his priorities.

Shortly before Tuesday's vote in the Senate, Trump stated from the Oval Office: "A lot of good things can come out of a government shutdown; we can get rid of a lot of things we don't want. That would be Democratic stuff." The agencies likely to be least affected by the shutdown are those related to border management, immigration raids, and the military deployment in the capital. Other sectors, such as transportation, will also continue to operate simply because they are essential. However, other departments, such as Education—which Trump wants to eliminate—could be seriously affected.

Suspension of the environmental agency, but not of immigration agents

For example, only 5% of employees at the Department of Homeland Security—which includes immigration and border patrol agents—are expected to be affected. In contrast, the Environmental Protection Agency's workforce—which has already suffered cuts—would have around 89% of its workers suspended.

In this context of suspension of payments, the head of the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Russell Vought, will also gain power. Vought is one of the authors of Project 2025, specifically of the chapter in which he explains how to achieve an absolute presidency through control of the OMB and various executive actions. The ideologist behind Elon Musk's mass layoffs that left nearly 200,000 federal workers out of work was Vought. Throughout this time, the head of the OMB has been working to wrest powers from the legislative branch and thus supersede the executive branch: he ordered the suspension of foreign aid when it is a decision that falls within the purview of Congress.

It is also possible that the government shutdown this time will impact the US economy, especially now that it is showing signs of fragility with the recent cooling of the labor market. If mass layoffs occur, unemployment figures could swell. In August, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, its highest in nearly four years. Likewise, many macroeconomic data collection and publication efforts will be suspended.

The Department of Labor has already issued a directive stating that the September employment report would not be released if a bankruptcy proceeding was declared. It also warned that, depending on the length of the government shutdown, the quality of the data collected could be affected. It is on the basis of these work reports that both private investors and the Federal Reserve make decisions. The Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter of a point recently due to poor job creation data.

The Democrats are in a poisoned situation, but if they know how to capitalize on it, it could be a way to raise their profile and oppose Trump's advance in applying the autocrat's playbook. The president and his people have dedicated these days to spreading fake news about the Democrats so that if a government shutdown occurred, citizens would blame them. Trump has been claiming that they would allow the shutdown only to defend supposed medical benefits for immigrants that don't exist.

On Monday, after the failed meeting with the Democrats to unblock the budget, Trump published a fake video in which the Democratic Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Schumer, and the Democratic House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, spoke about their proposal. To add to the mockery, Jeffries appeared wearing a Mexican hat.

After the Senate vote failed, Trump also shared AI-generated images of Schumer and Jeffries again. One of the photos shows the two Democratic leaders arguing in the Oval Office with House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican. A "Trump 2028" hat is displayed on the table in the foreground, although it cannot be presented a third time. The president is already assuming that the government shutdown, rather than affecting him, will affect the Democrats.

Last March, when Trump had already been saved from another government shutdown under the guise of avoiding further chaos amid Musk's firings, the party's rank and file were disappointed. The more progressive wing criticized Schumer for failing to respond to Trump's initial autocratic tics.