The United Kingdom dances to the anti-immigration music played by Nigel Farage.

LondonJust under a year before the 2014 European elections, Nigel Farage He was convinced that the party he then led, UKIP, would cause a "political earthquake." It was September 2013, and during the party's annual conference, he claimed credit for changing the terms of the debate on immigration and the United Kingdom's then-membership of the European Union. Many didn't take him seriously, but UKIP eventually won the election, with 27% of the vote.

More than a decade later, there is a compelling case to be made that Farage is the most successful politician to emerge from the islands in the 21st century. Without ever having governed, he has influenced legislation, captured and represented a significant portion of the electorate, and, above all, pushed the boundaries of what is acceptable in politics, with a right-wing populism that has gained ground and legitimacy. Not even Tony Blair, with his three consecutive absolute majorities (1997, 2001, and 2005), has had such a profound and lasting impact. For some, Farage is a hero; for others, a leader who puts forward "racist and immoral" proposals, in the words of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Be that as it may, YouGov notes that Farage is the most popular leader in the country. Where does his strength come from?

One explanation may lie in the analysis made by the think tank More in Common UK. This entity He has been studying polarization in the United Kingdom since 2016 and maintains that current British politics It does not revolve around the left-right axis, but rather between pro-system and anti-system voters.Research indicates that 60% of voters want to preserve and improve institutions, while 40% would prefer to "burn it all down." Nando Sigona, professor of international migration and forced displacement at the University of Birmingham, says it's in this desire to "burn it all down" that Nigel Farage's strength lies.

'Immigration,' the key word

AND immigration –legal or illegal, refugee from war or for economic reasons– is the word that no one can stop talking about. Farage has made her the scapegoat for all the country's ills. And should he finally come to power in the 2029 general election, he has promised all kinds of measures to combat it: from mass deportations from undocumented migrants to the elimination of the right to permanent residence (ILR), which would be changed to a temporary visa system, without clarifying whether it would be revoked for European citizens who enjoy it under agreements with Brussels. following the community divorce.

The Reform Party leader has put Keir Starmer on the ropes. and, in fact, leads the pollsAnd the government and the traditional Conservative opposition are playing to their tune. The week that is coming to a close has provided further evidence during the Labour Party conference. Last Monday, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood confirmed plans to reform the rules for indefinite settlement in the United Kingdom, the aforementioned ILR.

Among the measures the government wants to introduce is an increase in the length of residence required to qualify, from five to ten years. "I will propose a series of new requirements," said Mahmood, "such as having a job, paying National Insurance contributions, not having received a penny in social benefits, learning English to a high level, not having a criminal record, and, finally, having genuinely given something back to the community, for example by dedicating time to a local cause as a volunteer." She also announced more filters in the family reunification processes for refugees. A day later, in her address to the conference participants, the premier Starmer, with a measured but firm tone, presented these reforms as a way to "regain confidence" in an immigration system that he himself admits is overwhelmed.

The same theme played on Thursday in Copenhagen, at the meeting of the European Political Community. Before his counterparts, Keir Starmer defended closer cooperation on border control, presenting himself as a responsible actor on a continent living in fear of new migratory flows.

Within the framework of the meeting, and during a bilateral meeting with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Starmer announced a new economic package, worth up to three million pounds, aimed at addressing the causes of migration in the Western Balkan countries. The objective, shared and financially funded with Italy and Germany, is to encourage people to remain in the region, promoting job opportunities and reducing pressure on irregular routes to northern Europe.

Changes to the asylum system

In addition, the premier He also raised the possibility of reforming the way the European Convention on Human Rights is applied in the United Kingdom, a "foundational" reform, he said, that would fundamentally change the British asylum system and "put an end to an unfair mechanism that gives more rights to those who arrive by boat than to British citizens or those who use legal channels."

The staging of the premier has been clear: if Farage turns migrants into an internal cancer that threatens the soul of the country – in addition to diverting resources to foreigners instead of to the natives –, Labour wants to present them as an external problem, manageable only with alliances and international agreements. The dilemma is whether this movement neutralizes the discourse of the Reform Party or if, on the contrary, it fuels it even more, and thus confirms that Farage's agenda is the one that sets the pace for Labour and the Conservatives, who in the congress that begins this Sunday will raise the stakes to try to regain ground on who is, without a doubt, the great. An actor under whose cloak hides the most xenophobic and violent far right that already demonstrates in central London with more legitimacy than shame.