The thousand lives of the Netanyahu government, despite the unknowns that come
The summer recess extends the Israeli government's horizon to 2026 but poses threats to its political direction.
CairoSince the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, speculation about the fall of Benjamin Netanyahu's Israeli government has been constant. First, due to the shock of the attack, in the greatest security blunder in the country's history. Later, due to the opposition of the ultra-Orthodox wing of the executive branch to halting the genocidal offensive in Gaza. Even in June, after the war with Iran, there was speculation that the prime minister would try to take advantage and call elections.
In early 2024, a crisis with the ultra-Orthodox bloc in the government, triggered by a proposed law on its historic exemption from compulsory military service –rejected by most of the country– also generated signs of a possible collapse. The latest episode took place in mid-July, when The two ultra-Orthodox parties in the executive branch went a step further and decided to abandon him and leave him in a minority for the same reason.
Despite these trials and tribulations, however, the Israeli government has not collapsed at any point and has proven, time and again, to be more resilient than assumed. When an important partner of the executive has left, as is the case now, it has avoided toppling them and has kept the door open for a return. And Netanyahu, known for prolonging uncomfortable decisions, is governed by the maxim of never relinquishing power and trusting that a day passes, a year advances.
Netanyahu's government is based on two main blocs: two ultra-Orthodox parties, which together hold 18 seats, and two far-right parties, which hold 13. The prime minister's party, Likud, has 32, and the parliamentary majority stands at 61. The only reason they have remained united so far, despite the cross-blackmail, is that neither has shown interest in holding early elections.
Along these lines, the recent departure of the two ultra-Orthodox parties from the government also had a catch: this Sunday, Israel's parliament begins its summer recess and will not meet again until October 19. This period guarantees Netanyahu the continuity of the executive for the next three months (unless an extraordinary session is called, which includes no one), and he can dedicate that time to trying to contain or defuse his most important internal crises.
During the summer recess, Netanyahu's entourage is expected to accelerate negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox parties that recently staged their departure from the government in an attempt to find a solution regarding military service that would satisfy all parties in the executive branch. If a law is passed by the end of the year, it is not ruled out that it could be sent back to the Supreme Court, but this process would give the prime minister even more time.
The ceasefire in Gaza
The approaching summer recess for parliament has also been accompanied in recent weeks by a new, intermittent push in the negotiations for a truce in Gaza. On Thursday, the United States and Israel announced the withdrawal of the teams leading the talks in Qatar following Hamas's latest response to the proposed agreement under discussion. But neither side declared the negotiations over, and their choreographed gesture may be another way of exerting pressure.
The agreement currently being negotiated envisages a ceasefire and a phased hostage exchange, the first of which is expected to lead to the return of half of the live captives and half of the bodies held by Hamas in Gaza during an initial 60-day truce period. If an agreement is reached soon, this period would coincide with the Israeli parliament's recess and ensure the stability of Netanyahu's government. Earlier this year, Israel broke another ceasefire with Hamas after a 60-day phase expired.
In addition to the summer recess, if parliament were to ultimately dissolve upon its return, elections could not be held, by law, for at least three months, giving Netanyahu time to continue leading the government, albeit on an interim basis, until January 2026.
The government's four-year term expires at the end of 2026 anyway, so early elections in the first few months of the year are not out of the question because they would not be held much earlier than the legally mandated date. Furthermore, Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has not completed his four-year term in any of the six governments he has led since the 1990s.
For the past two years, polls have indicated that the governing coalition would not only lose a new election if it were held today, but would also be far from retaining its current parliamentary majority. The biggest losers would be one of the ultra-Orthodox parties, which could be excluded from parliament, and Netanyahu's Likud, which, although leading in the polls for a year, is doing so with a sharp drop in seats. In the coming months, the prime minister could risk playing his cards to try to shake up this scenario.