Netanyahu loses two parliamentary allies, but maneuvers to buy time

BarcelonaUnited Torah Judaism and Shas, Israel's two major ultra-Orthodox parties, have announced they will leave Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition in protest at his failure to introduce legislation exempting young men from Talmudic schools from military service. If the split is finalized (the process requires 48 hours), the governing coalition would be left with 50 seats and its continuity would be in jeopardy. With less support in parliament, the prime minister is dragging out ceasefire negotiations to wait until the chamber's recess, which begins in August.

The ultra-Orthodox want the government to pass a law exempting members of their community from military service, which is mandatory for both men and women in Israel. Since its founding in 1948, ultra-religious Jews who dedicate their entire lives solely to studying sacred texts have been exempt. But the genocide in Gaza, the intensification of the occupation in the West Bank, and the wars against Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Yemen have stretched the Israeli army's recruitment capacity to the limit, requiring it to mobilize tens of thousands of reservists and lengthen their service. The temporary provision exempting ultra-Orthodox and Muslims from the military service expired in June of last year. then the Supreme Court ordered that they should be recruited, forcing the government to prepare a bill to maintain the exemptions and which stipulated that some ultra-religious youth would indeed be recruited. The delay in presenting this law due to a lack of agreement has precipitated the party's defection from the coalition led by Likud, Netanyahu's party.

"The authorities are clearly showing their intention to put more pressure on Torah students, with several attempts to degrade and trample them. They have failed to fulfill their commitments to regulate the students' legal status," Rabbi Moshe Hillel Hirsch, who co-chaired the party, said in a letter on Sunday. "That is why our participation in the government coalition must end immediately, including the immediate resignation of all positions."

But, as the Israeli newspaper points out HaaretzThe withdrawal of the ultra-Orthodox from the government does not necessarily imply the calling of elections. They are the least interested in Israelis returning to the polls because their refusal to take part in the war effort is highly unpopular, and they risk losing representation and making the government that emerges from the elections even more reluctant to approve the exemption law. An estimated 60,000 ultra-Orthodox benefit from the privilege of not having to fight. In this way, ultra-religious parties can continue to provide parliamentary stability for Netanyahu from outside the government or return to the coalition if they secure a promise that satisfies their base. Another option is for Netanyahu's government to continue with a parliamentary minority and be forced to negotiate laws, a scenario that would continue to give the ultra-Orthodox a leading role. The opposition parties currently have no viable governing alternative.

Arrive on vacation

Even without the ultra-Orthodox groups, Netanyahu would have enough support in his government to approve, if he wanted, a ceasefire with Hamas (according to calculations by Haaretz would have the support of 12 of his ministers), although his far-right governing partners and some members of his Likud party (between 3 and 6 of his ministers), who oppose any agreement, would vote against it. In any case, Netanyahu must try to maintain his government until the start of the parliamentary recess, which begins in two weeks. During the recess, there are no votes in the Knesset, not even the one that would force the deputies to vote on censure in the government or the dissolution of the chamber and the calling of elections. This would give him a three-month margin of maneuver, until the resumption of political activity. "Perhaps that was the plan all along. Netanyahu returned from his visit to the United States without an agreement [with Hamas] to release the hostages. And now he is trying to find a balance between the demands of Donald Trump, who wants an agreement, and his governing partners from the messianic right, who oppose it," explains the report. Negotiations remain stuck on exactly the same obstacles they have been since Israel broke the truce agreed upon in January: Hamas wants guarantees that the ceasefire will end the war, but Israel refuses and also demands that its troops remain present and that the Islamists hand over their weapons and go to war.

According to the latest opinion polls, 80% of the Israeli population favors a truce that would allow the release of the hostages. But Netanyahu accuses the media of having cooked them up to obtain it. After twenty years in power, he has become a political animal who achieves it when it seems he has no other option. And now the summer strike is playing to his advantage.