The Russian threat forces Ireland to reconsider its historical neutrality

LondonThe Republic of Ireland is at a historic turning point. Its long-standing tradition of military neutrality—dating back to 1921, at the end of the War of Independence against the British, a position considered for decades an "article of faith" and a pillar of its modern identity—is crumbling or threatening to collapse under the weight of the new global geopolitical reality. as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine And some experts, such as Maeve Drury and Jason C. Moyer of the Atlantic Council, consider these "critical vulnerabilities," to the point that they have made it a "weak point" for Europe. Along with Austria and Malta, Ireland is the third member of the European Union that is not part of NATO.

The Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Micheál Martin, and the Minister of Defense, Simon Harris, have proposed a series of drastic reforms in recent months, such as increasing defense spending to a record high, to address a threat that is no longer theoretical and that puts submarine infrastructure at risk. The current government has set a target of €1.5 billion upon taking office in 2028, €150 million more than the amount allocated in 2026. This figure, however, only represents 0.25% of GDP.

Ireland's geographical position, a rich global center of technology and commerce (headquarters of big tech, big pharma and big dataThis makes the Emerald Isle the point of greatest vulnerability in Western Europe. Approximately 75% of the submarine cables that carry data between Europe and the United States, vital for global communications and financial transactions, pass through the extensive maritime zone under Irish jurisdiction.

For the past decade, the constant appearance of suspicious Russian ships – such as the spy ship – has been a problem. Yantar (Operated by the Russian underwater research agency GUGI) – near the Irish coast has raised fears that the Kremlin is mapping and preparing sabotage against essential infrastructure. Hostile activity and Russian naval exercises in 2022 near these critical cables underscore that Ireland's vulnerability makes it a potential "ground zero" for attacks seeking to harm EU or NATO countries without risking a collective response, according to analysts at the Cup. But the Irish Navy, responsible for patrolling these territorial waters, consists of only eight ships, of which only four are operational due to a lack of personnel. This reality, coupled with a lack of specialized surveillance equipment, renders its ability to protect underwater communications "essentially nonexistent." The country lacks primary radar, sonar (the equipment ordered by the Ministry of Defense will not be operational until 2027), and the necessary underwater inspection capabilities.

British frustration

This situation has generated growing frustration among Western allies, including the UK and EU and NATO partners, who see Ireland as shirking its international responsibility. Under the guise of neutrality, Ireland tacitly relies on the British Royal Navy for its maritime and air security—an uncomfortable and unacknowledged dependence.

The defense reassessment has focused on the impending legislation to abolish the mechanism called of the triple lockThis regulation requires approval from the UN Security Council, the government, and the Dáil for the deployment of troops abroad. Paradoxically, despite the Irish military's small size, Ireland is a traditional contributor to UN peacekeeping forces. For historical and cultural reasons, Ireland has never had a large army, and as a result, military service is an uncommon path for young people. In 2022, the Defence Forces Commission reported 13,569 permanent and reserve personnel, while more recent reports indicate 9,900 combined forces. By 2025, the Irish military will consist of approximately 7,400 active-duty personnel (5,950 Army, 750 Navy, 700 Air Corps) and 1,500 reservists. Now, the Martin government wants to eliminate the UN approval requirement to be able to mobilize more quickly. This point has brought the issue of neutrality to the center of political debate. In fact, The government insists it maintains military neutrality, but not political neutrality, as demonstrated by its hardline stance on Ukraine. However, this position is considered illogical by some critics, given that Ireland indirectly contributes to arms funding for Kyiv through the EU budget. In any case, potential opposition to the triple lock reform could be led by either Sinn Féin or the new president, Catherine Connolly, independent, which could refer the legislation to the Supreme Court of the republic.

But unlike what should past in Finland and SwedenIreland, which joined NATO in the wake of Russia's aggression against Ukraine—and where public opposition to joining the alliance (49% against) remains very high—is taking its first significant steps to mitigate risks. Dublin has begun drafting its first National Maritime Security Strategy, acquiring surveillance equipment, and considering joining the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a subgroup of NATO's Nordic nations focused on combating potential Russian sabotage. The debate over defense and security is not just an Irish domestic issue. When Ireland assumes the presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of next year, defense will remain one of the hottest topics on the agenda. Micheál Martin's government may be forced to clarify its role and accept the implication that if joining Europe is worthwhile, it is worth defending it. Not surprisingly, echoing other European leaders at a March 2025 European Council meeting to discuss support for Ukraine's efforts to defeat Russia, Prime Minister Martin stressed that "Europe must do more to ensure its own security and defense," as "Ireland is not immune to these threats."