The rice crisis that could bring down Japan's government

TokyoRice, an essential element of the Japanese diet and a national symbol of identity, has entered a crisis: in recent months, its price has soared by up to 90% compared to the previous year, and its absence from supermarket shelves and restaurant menus has caused alarm throughout the country. For the first time in decades, Japan is facing a shortage that not only affects everyday food, but also calls into question fundamental pillars of its agricultural and food model: self-sufficiency, price stability, and reliance on strategic reserves. What began as a harvest problem, largely caused by the climate crisis, has morphed into a national crisis with social and political repercussions that have yet to fully sink in.

The social tension generated by the rice shortage has also begun to take its toll on the political front. On May 21, Agriculture Minister Taku Eto resigned just six months after taking office, after sparking widespread public outrage when he jokingly stated that he never buys rice because his supporters always give him some. This generated enormous discontent among large segments of the population, particularly in rural areas traditionally linked to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) electorate.

At a time of severe shortages, his words were perceived as a completely misplaced mockery. Although verbal slips are not unusual in Japanese politics, this time the public reaction was immediate: discontent over the rice crisis, an essential commodity in the country's daily life, became a new factor wearing down the conservative government.

The handling of the rice crisis could have significant consequences at the polls, despite the minister's resignation. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has tried to manage the crisis discreetly, but with legislative elections scheduled for July and his approval rating falling to a historic low of 21%, the government finds itself in its worst situation in decades.

The rice shortage has become one of the central themes of the electoral campaign, and with the ruling coalition already weakened after losing its majority in the lower house in October 2024, this summer's elections could confirm a new and severe setback for Ishiba and the conservative.

Climate emergency and growth in tourism consumption, origin of the crisis

Despite being the world's tenth-largest rice producer, with 10.36 million tons annually, Japan has seen its domestic supply compromised. The 2023 harvest, affected by extreme temperatures, drastically reduced both the quality and quantity of the grain. This forced the use of larger quantities of brown rice to obtain processed white rice, increasing pressure on reserves. At the same time, demand soared due to the resurgence of the restaurant sector. the return of international tourism and a record number of new foreign residents, many of them from cultures with a high dependence on and consumption of rice.

The paradox is that while inflation had affected other commodities, rice had remained relatively stable in price, and had become a safeguard option for consumers. But this stability encouraged massive purchases and domestic stockpiles, especially after the earthquake alert on the Nankai Fault last August, which led to occasional shortages and spiraling inflation. And all this in such a tight market, where even a 2.7% variation in production—equivalent to just four grams per citizen per day—can destabilize the entire distribution chain and cause widespread price increases.

The complexity of the supply chain has also amplified the crisis: although most farmers continue to sell their produce through the traditional system managed by Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA)—an agricultural organization closely aligned with the governing LDP—a growing portion is marketed through alternative channels and silver. This diversification has made it difficult to track inventories and control prices, as acknowledged by Masayuki Kanamori, a senior executive at the national federation of cooperatives.

"The current rice shortage was unforeseeable," Kanamori told reporters. "Looking back, it caught us by surprise: we're baffled," he admitted. His testimony shows that even one of the country's most regulated sectors isn't going to be affected. be able to anticipate the combined effects of climate change, post-pandemic recovery and changes in consumer behavior, as well as increased consumption due to foreign nationals.