The price of an unpopular war
The war in Iran, which the United States and Israel began on February 28, has entered its sixth month and for now, no predictions can be made about its end. As the conflict extends, with its peaks and periodic truces, Donald Trump's popularity falls more and more, thus creating a situation that does not suit him, especially considering that we are in an election year.
Keeping the war alive could turn against the Republican party in the November elections, a circumstance that could complicate the situation for the party and the president during the second half of his term. Trump is aware of this weakness, but he cannot bring himself to end a war that, since February, has cost the lives of 18 Americans and has caused visible unrest in the country.
A poll by the Associated Press agency conducted in late July in the United States indicates that most adults are unhappy with Trump's handling of the war. Many respondents believe that the conflict is dragging on longer than they wish, and surely longer than Trump himself would want.
An alarming figure from the poll states that two-thirds of Americans do not believe the war is worth it. Naturally, the vast majority of Democratic voters are in this group, but what is most significant is that 37% of Republicans share this opinion.
The poll shows that only 28% of respondents are satisfied with how Trump is conducting the conflict. This July figure reveals a considerable drop in popular support for the president compared to June, when 34% of respondents approved of his handling of the war.
Among Republican voters, Trump's support has fallen from 71% in June to 61% in July. Many recall that, during the last election campaign, Trump promised not to start new wars, but the current conflict has left many Republican voters feeling deceived. The increase in the price of gasoline and the cost of living in general is another factor that citizens will have to consider when they vote in November.
These contradictions are precisely a factor that Iranians take into account. The Tehran regime believes that Trump will not go to a total war for fear that the price of oil will rise, and consequently, prices will rise in the United States and the rest of the world. If the Iranians bomb the oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, the price of fuel could skyrocket and cause chaos. Significantly, 72% of American respondents believe it is very important that prices do not rise.
Only the most ardent Trump supporters want war
The poll says that only 20% of Americans want to continue the war, a similar percentage to those who want to end it immediately. And 30% are in favor of stopping the war and resolving the conflict through negotiation. 25% of respondents say they don't know what's best.
Despite this, half of Republicans are in favor of continuing the war. Those who want to continue are part of the most conservative sector of the party, the so-called MAGA movement. The majority of Republicans who are not from the MAGA sector are in favor of ending the war. Curiously, a quarter of respondents believe they do not have enough information to form an approximate idea of what is happening on the ground.