Iran, without allies to respond to Israel's attack

DamascusFor more than two decades, Middle East analysts have speculated about the consequences of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, a long-standing threat from Washington and Tel Aviv. The prevailing opinion had always been that such an attack would set the entire region ablaze and provoke a major war with unpredictable consequences. However, all calculations and balances in the region have changed following the October 7 attacks in Gaza, as the network of allies that Tehran had been building since the 1980s to protect it from an attack has become deeply flawed.

In any case, after so many years of talking about the possibility of a destructive regional war, the entire region is holding its breath, awaiting the cycle of mutual retaliation that the bombing will entail. In Damascus, under a blazing sun, the streets were relatively empty on Friday, the first day of the weekend. The anticipation was palpable. "I'm worried about the effects the attack could have on us. Israel already occupied part of the south of the country last year," says Mossad, a young truck driver who spent nine years doing "military service" during the civil war.

Syria is the only state that was part of Iran's network of allies and has already been removed from the list following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. While it is true that the Syrian army was not in a position to participate in a regional war, mired as it was – since 2011 – in a civil war, it was key to enabling the supply of weapons to the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, which for years was Iran's main deterrent spearhead.

Hezbollah's Weakness

Clearly, this is no longer the case. Not only did it emerge completely defeated in last fall's war against Israel, but the Israeli army decapitated the organization, even putting many of its middle cadres out of action. the bold operation of the paging devices and the walkie-talkies explosives. While Hezbollah likely still has some of its missile arsenal, it is unclear whether it could use them without harsh retaliation.

The Islamist militia's position within the Land of the Cedars is the most precarious in its history. Any attack against Israel from Lebanese territory would result in a harsh response that could destroy the country's main infrastructure, further inflaming tensions between the organization and the new Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, who is sponsored by the US. Aoun pledged to disarm Hezbollah, as demanded by Washington, although he promised that he would do so "through dialogue."

In its first reaction to last night's bombings, Hezbollah condemned the action in a public statement but did not promise any revenge, a clear sign of weakness from an organization that has always been characterized by its defiant attitude toward Israel.

Of course, the regime led by Ayatollah Khamenei can no longer count on the Palestinian militia Hamas, which is fighting for its survival in a Gaza Strip in ruins. One of the few cards it still has are the Shiite militias in Iraq and Yemen's Houthis, who have proven to be the most dangerous pro-Iranian militia in the Middle East, with the harassment of ships crossing the Red Sea in solidarity with Gaza, which has disrupted global maritime trade for more than a year.

Given Israel's near-invulnerability through its various layers of missile defenses, these two actors could respond by attacking US interests and bases in the region, particularly in Iraq, as they have done on other occasions. Anticipating this scenario, hours before the Israeli offensive, Washington withdrew some of its personnel from Iraq.

The Houthis, "tamed" by Trump

However, it is not clear that the Houthis, the most independent of the militias that make up the so-called Axis of Resistance, would comply with Tehran's orders if they felt they were not aligned with their interests. About a month ago, the Houthis reached a non-aggression pact with Donald Trump in exchange for an end to their hostile actions against Red Sea ships. Would they really be willing to break it if Tehran asked them to?

Therefore, it does not appear that Iran has the capacity to "set the region ablaze," as had been feared. The ability of Iran to shoot down any of the hundred aircraft that participated in last night's bombings gives an idea of the weakness of its military, especially after previous Israeli attacks neutralized a good part of Iran's anti-aircraft defenses. The skies of Tehran are likely to limit themselves to carrying out a few limited-range attacks in the coming days and seek some kind of agreement with Trump that would allow them to survive, their top priority at the moment. The Iranian air force is expected to limit itself to carrying out some limited-range attacks in the coming days and seek some kind of agreement with Trump that would allow it to survive, its top priority at the moment. The consequences are unpredictable, given the precedents in Iraq and Syria.