The island, strategically important in the war against Iran, belongs to the EU.

On clear days, the mountains of Lebanon are visible on the horizon from the coast of Cyprus. This island, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, is geographically closer to the coasts of Syria, Gaza, and Turkey than to mainland Greece. Its strategic location, which makes it a key stronghold for the European Union (it is the easternmost point of the Union), also makes it more vulnerable to attack due to its military importance.

"When someone attacks Cyprus, they attack all of Europe," declared French President Emmanuel Macron last week, leading a delegation of European leaders, after a drone launched by a pro-Iranian militia struck Akrotiri, the British RAF base, and two others were repelled. Although President Nikos Christodoulides did not call for the activation of the EU's intervention clause, the attack put the continent on high alert and, incidentally, highlighted that an attack on this key enclave for European defense strategy could drag Europe into war.

"Cyprus is a large aircraft carrier in the eastern Mediterranean," says Domènec Ruiz, a senior researcher at CIDOB, who emphasizes the heavy militarization of the territory and the fact that, in practice, it functions as a logistical platform for the main Western powers in the region. The island hosts two British air bases, part of its colonial legacy: Akrotiri (the target of the drone attack) and Dekélia. The former, located in Limassol, at the southern tip of the island, houses more than 3,500 members of the British Air Force and Navy, and London has already used it for military operations in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The latter, Dekélia, is situated in the southeast, near Larnaca, on the border of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and has an infantry battalion and a Cypriot army training center deployed there. Turkey, which invaded the north of the island in 1974, vetoes its entry into NATO. This makes the bases even more crucial. Being under British sovereignty, they can circumvent the veto, and NATO troops can operate there nonetheless.

Eyes and ears in the region

Cyprus's proximity to the Middle East also makes it the eyes and ears of Western powers in the region—a privileged security vantage point. It is no coincidence that the territory hosts several British intelligence centers: Cape Gata, Ayios Nikolaos, and Troodos. Despite operating under the UK flag, in practice these facilities share sovereignty with the United States (which covers 50% of the costs) and Israel, and are key to the strategies of these two countries in the region. The information gathered by British sensors in Cyprus feeds Israel's defense systems in real time, allowing it to anticipate the movements of the Iranian axis.

Before the latest escalation, Paris already housed ships at the Mari naval base in the south to support its fleet in the Levant. Now, however, European countries such as France, Greece, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands have sent naval forces and anti-aircraft defense systems to protect the coast from any attack.Led by the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, the frigates Languedoc, Cristóbal Colón, and Kimon, and Typhoon, Rafale, and F-16 fighter jets, the European mission is purely defensive. Meanwhile, in the internationally unrecognized north, there is a deployment of between 35,000 and 40,000 Turkish troops, one of the densest military presences in the world relative to its territory, in a show of force by Ankara. Furthermore, Turkey has converted Geçitkale Airport into a strategic drone base and, following the recent escalation, has stationed a squadron of F-16 fighter jets there to bolster its ability to respond to any aggression. Gas reserves

Cyprus's importance to European geopolitics stems in part from its vast gas reserves. At a time when Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and is beginning to question the reliability of Washington's allies, the gas fields discovered off the coast of Cyprus could offer a solution for supplying the European continent. The reserves are estimated at up to 1.07 trillion cubic meters; a figure that, at the current rate of consumption, could supply all of Catalonia for more than two centuries. The first of the six fields that could begin production as early as 2027 is the Cronos field, managed by a consortium between the Italian company Eni and the French company TotalEnergies. Ruiz describes Cyprus as "a geostrategic crossroads," through which "submarine data cables pass, and there are plans for a major gas pipeline and a large electrical cable project." For all these reasons, the EU's interests on the island are more than tangible, but so is the need to protect it. Should Europe respond to an attack on the territory? First, Cyprus, explains Ruiz, should activate Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union, which would oblige all member states to provide assistance. However, he points out, each state has the power to decide what it wants to contribute: "The treaty doesn't specify any operational plan or say whether we should contribute fighter jets or ships," he says.

If there will be more attacks, "we don't know, but they can't be ruled out," warns the CIDOB analyst, who justifies this by saying that Cyprus is only "200 kilometers from the conflict." But the involvement of so many actors in such a small and strategic location complicates all scenarios. "It's a mess," concludes Ruiz.