The far right, clear favorite in the Chilean presidential elections

Special correspondent in Santiago, ChileNearly 15,800,000 Chileans are called to the polls this Sunday to elect their next president. Gabriel Boric, the young progressive who has governed Chile for the past four years, will succeed him. the outbreak In 2018, Boric left La Moneda Palace with a 28% approval rating, a figure that, while not low compared to previous presidents, doesn't immediately favor the left-wing candidate, Jeannette Jara, who had been his Minister of Labor and is seen by many Chileans as a continuation of a government that has become increasingly dysfunctional. The polls are clear: the winner this Sunday would be the far-right candidate, José Antonio Kast (58%), who In the first round, it surpassed the traditional right wing, represented by Evelyn Matthei, and also by the more radical wing of Johannes Kaiser, which will likely now garner all of their votes. Jara, for her part, ran as the only progressive candidate, supported by nine political formations from the Chilean left and center-left. In this second round, polls give her 42% of the vote.

Kast and Jara arrive at election Sunday after a campaign whose main focus has been the rise in insecurity in Chile. Public perception of insecurity has skyrocketed, while official data confirms a shift in the types of crimes committed: today, crimes are being committed in Chile that haven't been seen for decades—some say since the last dictatorship—such as kidnapping, extortion, and racketeering. This organized crime has been placed at the center of the public debate by the right wing, with a "tough on drug trafficking" approach, which they have subtly but effectively linked to irregular migration, especially from Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. "Those who are currently breaking the law and are in Chile illegally have 90 days left to leave the country," Kast said at his campaign closing event, referring to the three months remaining before the government changes. "And to the fugitives from justice we say the same thing: surrender before we become government, because every weight "What we spend looking for them, they'll pay for in prison." Given the widespread perception of increased insecurity, Jeannette Jara has also made promises in this direction, but replacing the "iron fist" with what she calls a "smart hand": aside from drug trafficking, she promises to prosecute tax crimes.

Perception of insecurity

In downtown Santiago, Sofía, 40, who works at a bank, confirms that insecurity is her main concern: "Crime has spiraled out of control, there are migrants everywhere," she tells ARA, adding that "Kast is the only one who can fix this problem." Paola, a nurse who will "definitely" vote for Jara, agrees with this assessment: "There are too many illegal immigrants, and Chileans aren't saints, but the crimes we've been seeing recently aren't something we're used to." Teresa, a 52-year-old administrative worker, completely disagrees: "The media spends hours talking about insecurity, and I don't see that it's changed that much," she says. "I can assure you that I live in a rough area of Santiago, and yes, there is crime, but it hasn't increased as drastically as people say: rather, it's more like a certain type of crime has been favored, rather, it's more like a prejudice has been established, rather than something has happened."

“We remain the safest country in Latin America, relatively speaking,” sociologist Rodrigo Medel told ARA. “What Jara has tried to do is create a narrative contrary to the one that says Chile is a country falling apart, that people don’t leave their homes because they’re afraid, and that the borders are out of control.” The analyst suggests the possibility of a close race between Jara and Kast this Sunday: a key factor for future negotiations in the legislature, which, after the first round, has become “sufficiently balanced” in terms of the political forces represented.

Regarding whether Chilean society is becoming increasingly conservative and regressive, Mendel believes not: "The vast majority of Chileans agree with same-sex marriage, women's rights, and abortion," he says, "but these are not currently on the agenda." Furthermore, he says, "anti-politics and anti-establishment sentiment has grown considerably," which the right has been better able to capitalize on than the left. The victory of José Antonio Kast seems likely, given his unabashed admission that he supported Augusto Pinochet in the 1988 plebiscite on the dictator's continued rule. Pinochet lost that referendum, and that defeat set Chile on the path to democracy. But the analyst rejects the conclusion that Chileans who vote for Kast are vindicating the dictatorship or the figure of the dictator: they have simply been seduced by a "nationalist populism, in the style of Trump." antiwoke and with strong support from the rural evangelical community."