The European left fears losing the last great social democratic bastion on November 29th

BrusselsIn the corridors of the European Parliament this week, a "very palpable concern" can be felt, asserts Jaume Asens. "There is a shared anxiety," agrees former European Commissioner László Andor. "All week I have been receiving messages from colleagues on the left," explains Compromís MEP Vicent Marzà. "Everyone is asking about the issue," summarizes Javi López, also a socialist MEP.

The relevance of the Spanish elections on November 29th transcends Spanish politics. European social democrats have a lot at stake. All polls, except those from the CIS, anticipate a wide majority for the Popular Party, which could end up governing with the support of Vox, whether inside or outside the executive. A defeat for Pedro Sánchez would mean the end of one of the few left-wing governments remaining in Europe and the only one led by a social democrat among the bloc's major powers. In a context of unprecedented advancement of the far-right, this scenario worries the European left for two reasons: it could isolate them from important decision-making and could force them to reform their strategy.

"A defeat for Pedro Sánchez would be a serious loss for European social democracy, with consequences that would go far beyond Spain," warns former European Commissioner Helena Dalli, a Maltese national and former head of Equality at the European Commission. Her concern focuses on the European Council, where the departure of the Spanish prime minister would leave the social democrats with less weight among the leaders of the member states. Currently, only four countries have governments led by social democratic leaders: Spain, Denmark, Lithuania, and Malta. For a small state like hers, this loss would have a practical effect: "Small states need alliances to turn their convictions into European policies," warns Dalli. "If the Council becomes very unbalanced, which ends up setting the guidelines for the Commission, Europe could end up with a very conservative political agenda," adds López.

Beyond major political orientations, a change of government in Spain would also have consequences for legislative negotiations in the Council of the EU, where ministers from member states approve European laws together with the European Parliament. Spain has acted as a progressive counterweight in various debates, and its weight is not minor: it is the fourth most populous state in the Union, a relevant factor in qualified majority voting. "It matters much more that Spain is there than two or three smaller countries," asserts EPC researcher Javier Carbonell.

A benchmark of the left

Sánchez's case has an added element, which is the interest he has poured into international politics. The Spanish president has taken advantage of this window to achieve successes and set the narrative that he could not set domestically. In a context of the retreat of multilateralism, several voices—even beyond social democracy—believe that he has become an international benchmark for the left.

"In Brussels, the Spanish state has been seen in recent years as a benchmark and a fundamental bulwark against the reactionary wave that is sweeping through Europe. For this trench to fall would be a very hard blow to the balance of power in the European Council," opines Asens. "Sánchez is the undisputed leader of the European left," argues López, who considers that his political influence in Europe is comparable to that of Tony Blair and Gerhard Schröder in the late nineties.

Former socialist commissioner László Andor compares him to the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau. Sánchez has been one of the most critical European voices against Donald Trump and has defended positions that have often diverged from those of many of his EU partners on issues such as immigration, climate policy, or relations with China. Also regarding the war in Gaza, where he has denounced Israel's repeated violations of international law. Because of this, Marzà adds that "in the international arena, the positions he has followed are the most consistent with international law," which makes him seem like "the last space for the defense of multilateralism."

Von der Leyen would lose an ally

Beyond the symbolism, a defeat of the left-wing bloc in Spain would mean "a hard blow to the spirits of the European" social democratic party, according to researcher Javier Carbonell, who believes it could drive a change in the party's strategy. "Social democrats are suffering a slow death. They have no strategy," he argues. For this reason, he argues that it would be the time to either shift towards more right-wing positions or to opt for an attitude of confrontation, in which the main person affected would be the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

At this moment, the majority of the decisions taken by the community executive are supported by the European People's Party —that of Von der Leyen—, the liberals, and the social democrats. And Sánchez often acts as an interlocutor between the community leader and the more progressive sector of the social democrats. Without him, some of his allies fear, it could be more difficult to maintain this understanding. "Von der Leyen's cabinet is worried about whether Sánchez falls," assures Marzà, who warns that, without the Spanish leader, "the social democrats will have no incentive to continue maintaining this coalition for free".

The Spanish elections are taking place in an especially intense electoral calendar in the EU. Next year there are elections in Italy, Poland, Finland, and France, and the latter will be particularly decisive for the course of Europe. In all these elections, the far-right threatens to occupy a new space of power. For the European left, a victory for Sánchez would be a sign that it is still possible to curb the advance of the radical right and keep the government in one of the continent's major economies. A defeat, on the other hand, could fuel pessimism before the next electoral appointments.