The division of the French left puts Paris and Marseille at risk

ParisThe first round of the municipal elections in FranceThe elections held on Sunday left a good number of city halls within reach of left-wing parties, mainly thanks to the strong showing of the left-wing coalitions—comprised primarily of Socialists and Greens—and the advance of La France Insoumise (LFI), Jean-Luc Mélenchon's radical left-wing party, which until now had a very strong local presence. However, these positive results could turn into failure in the second and final round, to be held next Sunday. Tensions between La France Insoumise and the other left-wing parties, especially the Socialist Party, could lead to important cities like Paris and Marseille, where the left could govern, falling into the hands of the right or the far right. In a two-round political system, if voters must choose between two left-wing parties in the second round, the progressive vote is split. That's why, in the last legislative elections, the main left-wing parties, including the insubordinate ones, presented joint candidacies under the name of the New Popular Front (NFP). However, this alliance is long since defunct, and the leader of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, warned this Monday that there will be no national pact with LFI for the second round of the municipal elections, although he is open to local agreements.

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With one year to go before the presidential elections, the Socialists – also known as LFI – want to establish their own identity to have a chance of reaching the Élysée Palace. The Socialists' strategy requires distancing themselves from the Melenchonistswho is conveniently accused of holding overly radical positions. The struggle is dangerous for the local ambitions of both sides. And it benefits the right wing—which, paradoxically, had modest results in the first round—and Marine Le Pen's far right.

While in some large cities like Lyon and Toulouse, left-wing and non-conformist candidates have announced they are merging their lists for the second round to stop the conservatives, in others, the lack of a pact could end up leaving progressive parties in opposition. This is the case in Paris, where the mayoralty could fall to the conservative Rachida Dati, a former minister and member of the Republicans party, the traditional right wing, if there is no agreement between the Socialist candidate, Emmanuel Grégoire, and the LFI candidate, Sophia Chikirou. Grégoire has categorically rejected a pact with LFI and is appealing for strategic voting: "Nothing is decided yet! Next Sunday, the right and the far right could win in Paris," he warned.

In the first round, Grégoire obtained 38% of the votes and Chikirou, 11.7%. Together they total almost 50%, but if they don't agree on a joint candidacy, Dati, who obtained 25.5% on Sunday and is in talks to form an alliance with the fourth-place finisher, the center-right candidate (11.3%), could win the mayoralty. Dati does not want any alliance with the candidate from the far-right Reconquista party, who also qualified for the second round with a narrow 10% of the vote.

No pact in Marseille

In Marseille, the situation is similar, but with Le Pen's far-right candidate, Franck Allisio, as the potential winner if there is no progressive pact. "We cannot allow Marseille to fall into the hands of the far right," declared Mathilde Panot, president of the parliamentary group of the Independent Left (LFI), on Monday, calling for a pact with the Socialist candidate in Marseille. The Socialists reject an alliance with LFI and ask their candidate to withdraw to guarantee a victory for the left. "The threat of a far-right victory in the country's second-largest city is such that, today, everyone must assume their responsibilities," asserted the Socialist general secretary, Pierre Jouvet. On Sunday, Allisio came in second with 35%, very close to the leader, the current mayor and candidate of the United Left, Benoit Payan (36.7%). In fourth place was the conscientious objector Sébastien Delogu (11.9%), behind the right-wing candidate, Martine Vassal (12.4%).