The coup in Iran's military leadership reveals unprecedented Israeli infiltration of the ayatollahs' regime.

BeirutThe killing of more than 100 senior Iranian military officers and scientists between June 13 and 16, victims of targeted attacks attributed to Israel, is one of the most serious setbacks suffered by the regime since 1979. Among the assassinations are key figures such as Mohammad Bagheri, head of the Fores; Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), and prominent figures in the nuclear and ballistic missile program, such as Fereydoon Abbasi, Mohamed Mehdi Tehranchi, and Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

For Rashad Ali, an analyst at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS), this is not a simple military attack. "It is a targeted decapitation of Iran's strategic elite," he says. The goal, he explains, was to simultaneously execute those who design, execute, and sustain Tehran's military and nuclear power.

Sources cited by The New York Times They claim that the precision and depth of the attacks reveal an unprecedented level of infiltration into Iran's security services. The targets were selected with surgical precision. Israel destroyed more than 20 command headquarters of the Quds Force and the Iranian army., and more than a third of the surface-to-surface missile launch platforms. It also attacked a nerve center of the nuclear program, located in a complex of multi-story buildings. missiles, drones, cyberwarfare, and external operations. But the most delicate blow has been against the nuclear program: without scientists with decades of experience, technical continuity is complicated. technique. "This time the damage is deeper," he warns. The Iranian Parliament is already studying a bill to withdraw the country from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as warned by Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei.

But what has been most alarming for the regime has been the internal security breach that has been exposed. Even semi-official media outlets like Jomhouri-e Eslami acknowledge that the infiltration demonstrates "the presence of traitors or structural incompetence." The regime has acted swiftly, appointing new IRGC and general staff chiefs in less than three days to demonstrate institutional continuity. Despite the unprecedented crisis, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei maintains intact control of the core powers. As long as he remains in charge, the regime's structure holds strong, even as internal unrest and military attrition mount. They denounce the fragility of the system. "People are wondering how it was possible to attack more than 100 points without any prior alarm or defensive response," Nassar notes.

In the face of Israeli aggression, Iran has vowed revenge and responded with a series of drone and missile attacks that have not been limited to northern Israel. They have also hit positions in the Golan Heights, military bases in the center of the country, the city of Haifa, and targets near Tel Aviv, albeit with limited impact. Israel, for its part, has reinforced its narrative. "We are not seeking regime change, but it may be crumbling on its own," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters. The Wall Street Journal.

Despite the coup, the regime's collapse does not appear imminent. "There is no organized opposition, nor a real political alternative inside or outside the country," notes French-Iranian researcher Delphine Minoui. "And when there are external attacks, nationalism usually consolidates the regime." According to Minoui, the greatest risk now is internal, as the government could use the attacks as an excuse to further shut down the system, increase repression, and accelerate its nuclear program as a means of survival.

The Israeli offensive has not brought down the regime, but it has exposed cracks in the system. It has revealed flaws in internal security, the fragility of its military shields, and the difficulty in anticipating coordinated attacks. Tehran is now moving between repairing damage, responding to Israel, and facing growing diplomatic pressure to return to the nuclear negotiating table. In recent days, actors such as Turkey and Russia have intensified efforts to convince Tehran to reactivate indirect contacts with the United States, with a planned round mediated by Oman. While hardliners refuse to negotiate under fire, more pragmatic sectors within the system see this channel as a possible way out to avoid further regional escalation. The final decision will depend on how the regime balances its need for survival with its desire to show strength.