The boats no longer leave Tunisia, they now leave Algeria: we explain why

TunisiaIn 2023, Tunisia became a headache for European politicians, especially for the far-right Italian government of Giorgia Meloni. That year, some 140,000 people set sail from Tunisian beaches for Europe, and 70% were able to reach it. The figures contrasted with those of its neighbor, Algeria. With a population almost four times larger, just over 2,200 people left in 2023. Two years later, the tables have turned on the so-called central Mediterranean route: Tunisia has almost completely sealed its beaches, while in Algeria the departure of small boats has skyrocketed.

Specifically, in the first eight months of the year, the arrival of migrants from Tunisia to Italy has fallen by 70%. According to UNHCR records, from January to August 2025, some 3,300 people from the small Maghreb country crossed the Mediterranean, compared to 14,000 in the same period last year. If we compare this with the first eight months of 2023, the decline is even more pronounced: then the figure exceeded 74,000. In the case of Algeria, more than 5,500 migrants have arrived in Europe this year, the vast majority during the summer months alone and with the Balearic Islands as their point of arrival. Brussels is concerned that a new route through Algeria has opened, one that was previously practically nonexistent.

"The reduction in arrivals via Tunisia is explained by the fact that the authorities have intensified the control and repression of migratory flows. And they have done so at a great cost in terms of human rights violations," warns Romdhane Ben Amur, a researcher specializing in migration at the think tank FTDES points out that, in addition to stronger political will, Tunisia has more resources thanks to aid and donations from European countriesThe strategy of authoritarian President Kaïs Saïed has largely been to turn Tunisia into a dangerous, if not completely uninhabitable, country for sub-Saharan migrants, who previously saw it as a safer crossing point than Libya, which was controlled by unscrupulous militias.

Following an intense xenophobic media campaign in 2023, which resulted in lynchings of migrants, authorities illegally deported hundreds of people to the desert border areas with Libya and Algeria. It is estimated that at least thirty died of hunger and thirst. Furthermore, almost all humanitarian assistance for those who escaped the raids was cut off. In the last year, authorities They have closed all the local NGOs that carried out this task., and have imprisoned several of its leaders.

Agreement with the EU

This shift coincided with the signing of a comprehensive agreement with the EU in July 2023, which granted Tunisia €105 million to strengthen border controls, another €150 million in direct budget support, and paved the way for the conditioned disbursement of an additional €900 million. For President Saïed, who staged a self-coup in 2021, European support is key given the country's long-running economic and social crisis.

Although there are no official estimates on the number of undocumented migrants living in Tunisia, all indications are that it has dropped dramatically in the last year. Many left for Europe in haste in 2023 and 2024, which also helps explain the reduction in departures this year.

As for Algeria, some analysts have speculated that the increase in boat departures to the Balearic Islands could be motivated by a decision by the authorities to use migration as a lever of pressure against the Spanish government. However, after having gone through a deep bilateral crisisFollowing the shift by Pedro Sánchez's government in 2022, when it recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara, the episode was considered closed by the end of 2023, and relations between the two countries are now good. Therefore, this is not a very likely scenario.

"When repression increases in a country, migrants change routes. The decline in routes from Tunisia this year is related to the increases in Algeria and Libya," Ben Amur points out. In fact, in Italy, the total number of migrants is similar to last year, as the increase on the Libyan route has offset the reduction on the Tunisian route. Likewise, the number of drownings has remained fairly constant. In 2024, more than 2,300 deaths were recorded across the Mediterranean, with the central route being the deadliest.

Emigration of young Algerians increases

However, not all migrants leaving Algeria are sub-Saharan Africans. In fact, the number of Algerians continues to rise, and could grow even more following the uproar caused by seven Algerian minors who landed in Ibiza in early September. The teenagers, who stole a yacht, recorded and posted videos of their adventures on social media, which became a viral phenomenon.

"This is the first time that minors have traveled completely alone. But the commotion is also explained by the fact that their emigration contrasts with the image the government projects of our society as prosperous and content. They were all children from middle-class families," comments Algerian analyst Othman Lahiani, who believes that, depending on them, if they are not deported, they could have a "pull effect" on Algerian youth. With expectations of democratic change dashed, with the mass mobilizations of 2019, and with repression reinforced, many young Algerians see emigration as their only way to fulfill their dreams.