“I hope the United States doesn’t come to the Amazon COP,” says the Brazilian negotiator.

Porto Alegre (Brazil)Ten years ago in France, the world celebrated one of the most hopeful moments in recent diplomacy: the approval of theParis Agreementthe great global pact to curb planet warmingToday, however, optimism has faded, and reality imposes itself with the starkness of the data. The global average temperature is dangerously approaching the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and the national climate commitments—Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—that each country submits to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions remain insufficient. Wars and geopolitical tensions between the major global powers, along with instability and a lack of funding, have diminished the ambition of an international community that seems to have abandoned multilateralism. Besides the United States, which has yet to decide whether or not to send a delegation to Brazil, a notable absence at COP30 will be that of Israel, which has already announced its withdrawal due to its ongoing conflict with the UN.

In this volatile and hopeless context, COP30, which opens on Thursday, November 6, with a preliminary summit of political leaders and officially kicks off on November 10 in Belém do Pará, one of the gateways to the Amazon, is much more than a credence test: it is a test of credibility: it is a test for Brazil, which will be its host. "One of the great challenges is to demonstrate that what was agreed upon in Paris can become a reality," says Lilian Chagas, a diplomat, Brazil's chief negotiator, and one of those responsible for preparing the conference. Chagas speaks with ARA via videoconference, between Brasília and Porto Alegre, the capital of the country and the state of Rio Grande do Sul, respectively. And she does so with the serenity of someone who knows the inner workings of the UNFCCC negotiations. "The global process created a decade ago works—imperfectly, but it works—and now we must make it more ambitious and fairer, since inertia alone will not get us to the goals of the Agreement," he says.

But Chagas is aware of the extremely adverse context in which the summit is being held, especially after the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement. Despite representing the country that pollutes the most per capita, Trump will not be present at the leaders' summit that will kick off COP30 on Thursday. But he could send a negotiating team to the summit if he wanted, because its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement —approved on the same day he took office, January 20— doesn't technically take effect until January 1, 2026. Faced with the uncertainty of whether or not they will attend, Chagas is emphatic: "I hope they don't come."

The statement reveals the disruption caused by Washington, which could further obstruct the fragile climate negotiations. A recent example was the Trump administration's blocking of a tax on ship emissions, which failed to pass last month within the International Maritime Organization. Washington participates in climate negotiations to sabotage them.

"If the international atmosphere were more cooperative, everything would be easier," Chagas admits. "In fact, this COP will test whether or not God is Brazilian," he says, emphasizing the initial difficulties facing the climate meeting. Ten years after Paris, the diplomat points out that, for the first time, "the complete cycle foreseen by the Paris Agreement is fully operational." This summit marks the transition from debate to action; the negotiation phase of the pact's specific terms is over, giving way to its implementation. However, this progress in the bureaucratic machinery clashes with an "extremely difficult" geopolitical context. But Lilian Chagas remains hopeful, driven by an undeniable truth: "Climate change is no longer a theory: it is a reality that affects everyone." She recalls that, even after Donald Trump's denialist speech during Climate Week in New York, in which he called climate change a "fantasy" and attacked clean energy, two days later, UN Secretary-General António Guterres convened a meeting attended by representatives from 11 countries, demonstrating a commitment to stronger climate action. Brazil's credibility is at stake.

COP30 is undeniably Brazilian because of its context and priorities. The decision to hold the conference in Belém, in the heart of the Amazon, is a very powerful symbolic message. "Holding the conference in Belém do Pará reflects Brazil's commitment to protecting the forest and promoting sustainable development in the region," says Chagas. "If the Amazon collapses—and scientists have identified up to 22 potential tipping points in and around the region—the entire world would suffer the consequences." Brazil wants to demonstrate that it can be part of the solution. But, for now, as the ambassador herself says, the reality is that 50% of the country's emissions still come from deforestation. Reversing this trend is its top mitigation priority. "Our main challenge is to end illegal logging, illegal mining, and illegal cattle ranching, and to recover millions of hectares of lost forest," explains the negotiator. That is why, at the summit on Thursday, Brazil will officially present the Tree Forest Finance FacilityA reforestation project covering more than 18 million hectares, supported by the World Bank, aims to channel investments toward conservation and the bioeconomy of the Amazon. In this context of leading by example, Brazil is also heavily investing in renewable energies, especially biofuels. "We are the only country where consumers can choose between gasoline and ethanol, made from sugarcane. Ethanol is 30% cheaper and much less polluting," Chagas points out. Generally speaking, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the FAO, sugarcane ethanol can reduce emissions by between 60% and 90%.% of CO₂ emissions compared to gasoline, provided that production does not involve deforestation or intensive practices. But if natural ecosystems are encroached upon (such as the Cerrado or the Amazon rainforest in Brazil), the balance can become negative for decades, since the loss of carbon from the soil and vegetation outweighs the benefits of the biofuel.

In any case, the key to the success of COP30, according to Lilian Chagas, is not the lack of solutions, but the capacity to implement the solutions that are adopted. With the world nearing the critical threshold, Belém will be the stage where diplomacy must demonstrate that the will to save the planet is still the central axis of international politics, a commitment that many global leaders—from Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin or Narendra Modi—openly question.

Chagas sums it up with a tone that combines realism and hope: "Science tells us that we still have time—until the end of this decade—to change course. But we must act quickly." And he adds, with a very Brazilian metaphor: "In my country we say that when faced with a great challenge, it is necessary to act as a family (mutirão (in Portuguese). Climate change is the same: a collective task. Either we do it together, or we won't do it at all.

From Paris to the Amazon, the thread that binds a decade of climate summits is increasingly fragile, but it has not yet broken beyond repair. In Belém, under the green canopy of the rainforest, the international community has more at stake than ever before.