Socialists save the French government from censorship

ParisFrench Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has narrowly escaped censure. The National Assembly narrowly rejected the motion of no confidence presented by the radical left on Thursday: the motion was voted on by 271 deputies, 18 short of the 289 needed to bring down the government. The Socialists and the right decided not to vote on it, although some rebel deputies from both parties chose to disobey the request. Shortly after, a second motion of no confidence presented by the far right was also rejected, as expected. The new head of government pledged on Tuesday to suspend pension reform to prevent the Socialists from joining the censure. The move paid off.

Lecornu, a Macronist from the right, was saved. But the very close result of the vote once again highlights the fragile political situation in the country. However, overcoming the censure gives breathing space to the Prime Minister and the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, who bet on Lecornu against all odds, four days after he had resigned.

"This is the moment of truth. Do we want republican order, with debates taking place in the National Assembly, or do we want disorder?" the prime minister demanded in the debate prior to the vote. On Tuesday, Lecornu presented his priorities in the Assembly and focused his speech on the approval of the budget. However, his draft accounts include highly controversial savings measures, such as freezing pensions or increasing the amount citizens pay for doctor visits. These proposals were widely rejected by opposition parties, which bodes well for explosive negotiations. Previous governments were brought down as a result of the budget.

The far right would win the elections.

Despite having passed Thursday's vote, nothing guarantees stability in the medium term—another vote of no confidence could come at any moment—but for now, the possibility of early legislative elections is fading. Macron had warned that voting on the vote of no confidence meant voting for the dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling of legislative elections.

According to polls, if the elections to renew the Assembly are held now, the leading force would be Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally, which could grow in number of seats and dominate the chamber. In recent days, there has even been talk of pacts: the right (Republicans) is betting on an alliance with Le Pen's party. According to an Ifop poll published this week, 52% of French people favor a government formed by the far right and conservatives. "We await the dissolution with increasing impatience," Le Pen stated.

With the threat of immediate censure averted, Lecornu will now focus on negotiating the budget with the political parties. "Today's non-censure is in no way a pact" over the budget, the Socialists warned.