Socialists save the French government from censorship

ParisFrench Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has narrowly escaped censure. The National Assembly narrowly rejected the motion of no confidence presented by the radical left on Thursday: the motion was voted on by 271 deputies, 18 short of the 289 needed to bring down the government. The Socialists and the right decided not to vote on it, although some rebel deputies from both parties chose to disobey their party's mandate. Shortly after, a second motion of no confidence presented by the far right was also rejected.

The new head of government pledged on Tuesday to suspend pension reform to prevent the Socialists from joining the censure vote. The move paid off. Lecornu, a Macronist from the right, was saved. In the previous debate, he had warned that voting for censure meant returning to disorder and chaos. "This is the moment of truth. Do we want republican order, with debates taking place in the National Assembly, or do we want disorder?" he demanded.

The prime minister avoided the fall of the government, but the narrow result once again highlights the fragile political situation in the country and the weakness of the Élysée Palace tenant. However, overcoming the censure vote gives breathing space to the prime minister and the president of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron. Macron, who bet on Lecornu against all odds, four days after he had resigned.

On Tuesday, Lecornu presented his priorities in the Assembly and focused his speech on the approval of the budget. However, his draft budget includes highly controversial savings measures, such as freezing pensions or increasing the proportion that citizens pay for doctor visits, proposals widely rejected by opposition parties, which foreshadows explosive negotiations. Previous governments were brought down as a result of the budget, and Lecornu's could end the same way. "Negotiations should have begun, and now they can begin," the Prime Minister congratulated himself.

Despite having survived Thursday's vote, nothing guarantees stability in the medium term—there could be another vote of no confidence at any moment—although for now, the possibility of early legislative elections remains remote. Macron had warned that voting for the motion of no confidence meant voting for the dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling of legislative elections.

The far right would win the elections.

According to polls, if elections to renew the Assembly were held now, the leading force would be Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally, which could grow in number of seats and dominate the chamber. In recent days, there has even been talk of pacts: the right-wing (Els Republicans) is pushing for an alliance with Le Pen's party. According to an Ifop poll published this week, 52% of French people favor a government formed by the far right and conservatives. "We await the dissolution with increasing impatience," Le Pen stated this Thursday.

With the danger of an immediate censure removed, Lecornu will now focus on negotiating the budget with the political parties. "Today's non-censure is in no way a pact" for the budget, the Socialists warned. In fact, Lecornu's promise to suspend the reform must be translated into a formal legal proposal, and the head of government wants to include it in the social security budget, a decision that has drawn criticism from left-wing parties. The social security accounts are the ones that include the most controversial cuts, and it will be difficult for the Socialists to vote in favor of the entire package.

France has been in a difficult economic situation for some time, with very low growth and very high debt and deficits, well above what eurozone rules allow. Lecornu faces the great difficulty of reducing the deficit, at least to 5%, while seeking formulas that are acceptable to both the left and the right. Without a broad consensus in the Assembly, the accounts cannot be approved.

Tax on the ultra-rich

All left-wing parties are calling for a tax on the ultra-rich, known as the Zucman tax, a 2% tax on assets over €100 million. Macronists, as well as the right and far right, reject the idea, although the proposal would help reduce the deficit and avoid social cuts, such as the freezing of pensions in 2026, one of the proposals included in the draft budget.

According to the economist who launched the idea, Gabriel Zucman, director of the European Observatory on Taxation, the tax would affect 1,800 ultra-rich French taxpayers and contribute around €20 billion to the public coffers annually. The left will submit an amendment to introduce the tax, but it is unlikely to be approved.