Six unanswered questions about the fragile ceasefire in Gaza
The agreement has no shared political horizon or guarantees to sustain it.
Special Envoy to JerusalemDonald Trump is a master at fabricating headlines, even if they don't correspond to the truth. This week, he proclaimed that the Middle East has entered a new golden age of peace thanks to his mediation of a ceasefire in Gaza. But the reality is far from this. After two years of devastation, all that remains is a fragile truce: Trump has convinced Netanyahu to stop the bombing and Hamas to hand over the hostages. Trump has turned the diplomatic machine upside down. Normally, agreements are forged in hours and hours of advisory meetings to discuss details behind closed doors until a basis for understanding is found, which is then certified by the signatures of political leaders. But in this case, everything went the other way: the leaders signed an agreement in a ceremony in the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh that merely signaled international support for the US initiative. A ceremony in which the protagonists were not present: neither Hamas nor Netanyahu, and both have made it clear that there is no common political basis for moving forward.
As Palestinian analyst Omar Shaban, founder of the Pal-Think Center for Strategic Studies in Gaza, recalls, the current situation "is not a political solution, but a pause imposed by exhaustion and international pressure." A European representative involved in the negotiations told Reuters that "it is a truce of survival, not of reconciliation." We review below the threats looming over the ceasefire.
Will peace come to Gaza?
The warlike mood has not yet been broken, despite the halt in bombing: according to the official count, Israel has killed 34 Palestinians in Gaza since the ceasefire began—among them seven minors, two women and two men from the same family—and left 122 wounded. Israel accuses Hamas of violating the agreement by maintaining armed positions and active tunnels, while the Islamist movement denounces Israel for carrying out targeted military operations. Israeli military sources, quoted by the newspaper Haaretz, admit that the truce "does not imply the end of operations," but rather a "strategic reorganization to prepare for the next scenario." Trump has proclaimed the end of the war, but Netanyahu has not.
Will the exchange be bogged down with corpses?
Hamas has returned the 20 live hostages it had held since October 7, 2023, but has only released the bodies of 10 of the 28 hostages who died that day or during captivity in Gaza. The Islamists had previously stated they were unable to do so, and it had been agreed that international forensic teams would go to the Strip to help locate them, but Israel still considered this a violation of the ceasefire. "If Hamas fails to return all the bodies, or if Israeli society perceives that it is not doing everything possible to return them, the already fragile trust between the parties will be further eroded and the implementation of the next stages of the agreement will be complicated," warns Danny Citrinowicz, a former member of Israeli military intelligence.
Israel has also failed to fulfill its part in returning the bodies of Palestinians who have died in captivity in its prisons. He has returned 135 bodies, many of them bearing signs of torture or showing signs of having been executed alive. Many of them were unidentified despite having been held in prisons for months or years. Furthermore, the most popular prisoners among Palestinians and who could play a political role, such as Marwan Barghouti, have not been released.
Will Israel withdraw its troops from Gaza?
Israeli troops have withdrawn to the yellow line defined by Trump's plan and still occupy 53% of the Gaza Strip, which is no larger than the Maresme River. The plan gives Israel leeway to maintain a military presence in Gaza to ensure that Hamas cannot reconstitute itself. Israeli security sources insist that it is necessary to maintain control of strategic areas, such as the Philadelphia corridor, on the border with Egypt.
As Daniel E. Mouton, a researcher at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, points out, the far-right partners of the Netanyahu government oppose any withdrawal. In his view, the agreement only represents "a reduction of fire, not a total ceasefire." Israeli official sources admit that troops "will remain inside Gaza" and that the most realistic projection is a partial and tactical relocation, maintaining control of the corridors and border areas.
Will enough humanitarian aid enter Gaza?
The population of Gaza is experiencing a devastating humanitarian crisis, with hunger caused by the Israeli siege, a destroyed healthcare system, successive forced displacements, and basic infrastructure such as water treatment plants and the electricity grid devastated by bombing. All this on the eve of the third winter since the start of the war. The latest ceasefire agreement allowed the entry of food, but not shelter materials. Thousands of wounded must be evacuated for treatment in other countries, and heavy machinery is needed to reopen roads and remove debris. Israel controls how many trucks can enter the Strip and by which routes, especially the corridor from Rafah to the Kerem Xalom crossing.
Will Hamas disarm?
The Palestinian militia signed the agreement under great pressure from its regional allies (Turkey and Qatar) and has already expressed its opposition to disarming, claiming it will only hand over its weapons to a future Palestinian state. The plan envisions the deployment of an international armed force to ensure security, but this remains unclear (the big question is which country is willing to send soldiers to Gaza). It is also unclear who will govern the Strip: the Islamists have accepted a technocratic Palestinian government, while Trump is betting on a colonial government led by himself and a colonial government led by himself, a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu is not willing to accept under any circumstances: in fact, he prides himself on being the Israeli leader who made it impossible for him.
Who will govern Gaza?
Neither Israel, Hamas, nor the Palestinian Authority have a plan for the day after the war. Israel demands the complete destruction of Hamas before negotiating a permanent truce. Hamas demands a total troop withdrawal and recognition of the Palestinian right to self-determination. The Palestinian Authority, weakened and delegitimized, watches from a distance.
As former Palestinian negotiator Hanan Ashrawi has warned, "Israel wants a truce without political consequences, while Hamas wants political recognition without concessions. This contradiction makes progress impossible."
