Palestinians await the release of their Mandela

Special Envoy to JerusalemIsrael and Hamas have agreed to release the 48 Israeli hostages still being held, dead or alive, in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Donald Trump has hastily forced a ceasefire agreementThe devil is now in the details. The agreement stipulates the release of 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences for violent crimes, 1,700 Palestinians detained inside Gaza in the last two years who had not participated in the October 7 attacks, and 22 minors from the Strip. Beyond that, negotiations remain open, and this afternoon, just hours before the deadline for the release of the hostages on Monday at noon, the list of names of the Palestinian prisoners to be released has still not been made public. One key name is on the table: Marwan Barghouti, the most popular Palestinian leader and one capable of building consensus among all factions. Israel has said it has no intention of releasing him, and Hamas has insisted it wants him out of prison.

Barghouti is a terrorist for Israel and a national hero for the Palestinians. He is the figure best positioned to become Palestinian president if elections were held, which have not been held since Hamas's electoral victory in 2006. Known as the Palestinian Mandela, after leading the Second Intif, he was sentenced to five life sentences of more than 40 years in prison as the mastermind of suicide attacks that killed five Israelis. Barghouti did not defend himself at the trial because he said he did not recognize the legitimacy of the Israeli courts, but he claimed to have had no connection with those attacks.

That conviction ruled him out of the Palestinian Authority presidential elections, which were won by the much less popular Mahmoud Abbas. Since then, Barghouti's name has come up every time prisoner releases have been negotiated, as has that of Ahmad Saadat, the most visible face of the Palestinian left, also imprisoned since 2002. Both names were put on the table when Israel exchanged 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for the soldier. In that exchange, Yahya Sinwar, who twelve years later would be the architect of the Palestinian attacks of October 7, was released. However, Barghouti and Saadat remained behind bars.

Barghouti mediated between Fatah and Hamas to achieve a unified Palestinian leadership, and in 2006 he drafted a document in which secular nationalist, Islamist, and leftist Palestinian prisoners called for Palestinian unity. From prison, he also advocated starting a third intifada to pressure the Israeli government, but he always defended the two-state solution: a Palestinian state with Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, alongside Israel, which he called "our future neighbor."

A unifying figure

Israel does not want to release Barghouti, primarily because he could be a unifying figure for the Palestinians, a figure like Nelson Mandela, renowned for having spent decades in prison and consistently defending his principles. And at the same time, he is willing to negotiate with Israel: he used to say that he would speak with all Israeli politicians who would meet with him. Polls continue to show him far more popular than President Abbas. In a survey conducted in May 2025, 50% said they would vote for him, ahead of Hamas leader Khaled Meshal and Abbas himself, whose popularity has plummeted due to the Palestinian Authority's collaboration with Israel on security matters and the rampant corruption within his administration.

But that is in the past, and little is known about Barghouti's status or what he thinks now. The last time he was seen was in a video last August, in which the Israeli Interior Minister, the far-right Itamar Ben-Gvir, threatened him in his cell. Barghouti was the very image of the conditions to which Palestinian prisoners are subjected, thin and emaciated. What he believes or defends now, after twenty years in prison, is a mystery. As Amjad Iraqi, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, explains, "There is a lot of iconography and a legend built around him, which only a few people have been able to see for a long time." Since the attacks of October 7, 2023, Barghouti has been held in strict solitary confinement, and according to Palestinian human rights groups, he has been subjected to severe mistreatment, like other Palestinian prisoners. His family has said they fear he will be killed in prison.

Nor does it appear that Fatah and Palestinian President Abbas have any interest in the veteran and popular leader's release from prison. This would be an obvious threat from leaders completely alienated from their people. And as for Hamas, brandishing Barghouti's name is a way of presenting itself to the Palestinians as an organization that defends all Palestinians, not just its members.